Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Solana has recorded 25 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.20% and 44.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -43.7% to -32.7% | 6 |
| -32.7% to -21.7% | 4 |
| -21.7% to -10.7% | 2 |
| -10.7% to +0.3% | 2 |
| +0.3% to +11.3% | 2 |
| +11.3% to +22.3% | 0 |
| +22.3% to +33.3% | 0 |
| +33.3% to +44.3% | 0 |
| +44.3% to +55.3% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 25 | 0.20% | 0.88% | 56.0% | 6.99% | -3.74% |
| 3 days | 25 | 1.80% | 0.82% | 52.0% | 10.02% | -8.57% |
| 7 days | 25 | -1.20% | 1.40% | 44.0% | 19.59% | -10.01% |
| 14 days | 25 | -1.39% | -1.52% | 36.0% | 17.65% | -18.99% |
| 30 days | 22 | -5.44% | -3.90% | 36.4% | 21.32% | -33.36% |
| 90 days | 18 | -27.59% | -16.11% | 22.2% | 55.31% | -43.74% |
Historical occurrences
25 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 5.67 | $102.05 | +6.99% | +3.47% | -1.62% | -0.47% | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 6.89 | $93.69 | +0.20% | +5.52% | +11.12% | +8.79% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 10.82 | $85.33 | +2.72% | +10.02% | +19.59% | +17.65% | — | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 5.16 | $77.36 | +4.21% | +5.61% | +0.55% | -0.16% | -5.90% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 5.25 | $75.01 | -1.93% | +7.47% | +9.16% | -0.11% | -1.87% | — |
| 2026-06-27 | 6.18 | $71.81 | -1.96% | +4.46% | +14.59% | +8.71% | +6.79% | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 5.03 | $73.18 | -1.03% | -4.88% | -3.79% | +11.65% | +6.24% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 5.75 | $66.82 | -0.06% | +6.59% | +4.24% | +1.22% | +14.82% | +52.01% |
| 2026-06-08 | 6.83 | $66.42 | +0.57% | -4.88% | +7.22% | +9.03% | +21.32% | +55.31% |
| 2026-04-14 | 6.32 | $86.64 | -3.25% | +2.84% | -1.55% | -2.11% | +5.17% | -11.27% |
| 2026-04-08 | 6.98 | $85.74 | -3.74% | -1.08% | -2.24% | +0.36% | +3.14% | -4.49% |
| 2026-03-24 | 5.91 | $91.62 | -0.72% | -5.52% | -10.01% | -12.53% | -5.12% | -20.95% |
| 2026-03-16 | 5.23 | $92.84 | +3.29% | -2.94% | -6.82% | -12.34% | -9.72% | -25.81% |
| 2026-02-26 | 11.27 | $88.08 | -2.27% | -3.87% | +3.40% | -1.73% | -5.76% | -5.01% |
| 2026-02-14 | 7.41 | $84.46 | +4.39% | +2.51% | +0.40% | -2.86% | +9.93% | +9.07% |
| 2026-02-07 | 10.93 | $86.98 | +0.65% | -0.20% | -2.90% | -2.51% | -5.86% | +1.67% |
| 2025-12-20 | 5.57 | $126.19 | -0.33% | -0.29% | -3.17% | +4.85% | +7.38% | -29.36% |
| 2025-12-03 | 9.47 | $138.67 | +4.44% | -3.92% | -0.56% | -6.90% | -8.45% | -37.44% |
| 2025-11-25 | 5.95 | $138.35 | +0.42% | +1.80% | -8.44% | -3.70% | -11.49% | -43.08% |
| 2025-11-19 | 7.50 | $140.62 | -2.78% | -8.57% | -1.20% | -1.39% | -14.99% | -38.43% |
| 2025-10-24 | 6.29 | $191.41 | +1.10% | +4.50% | -3.61% | -18.99% | -33.36% | -32.23% |
| 2025-10-13 | 10.80 | $197.21 | +5.78% | -1.64% | -4.78% | +1.42% | -21.58% | -31.12% |
| 2025-10-02 | 6.23 | $221.88 | +5.82% | +2.76% | +3.25% | -12.57% | -15.64% | -43.74% |
| 2025-09-27 | 5.90 | $204.82 | -0.61% | +3.96% | +13.78% | -7.82% | -2.34% | -41.40% |
| 2025-09-13 | 5.92 | $242.22 | +0.15% | -3.30% | -1.51% | -15.44% | -18.58% | -43.66% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +19.59%
- 2026-06-27: +14.59%
- 2025-09-27: +13.78%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-03-24: -10.01%
- 2025-11-25: -8.44%
- 2026-03-16: -6.82%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.