Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After 3 Consecutive Red Days?
Solana has recorded 28 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.71% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -31.3% to -23.8% | 2 |
| -23.8% to -16.2% | 3 |
| -16.2% to -8.7% | 1 |
| -8.7% to -1.2% | 6 |
| -1.2% to +6.3% | 10 |
| +6.3% to +13.8% | 3 |
| +13.8% to +21.4% | 2 |
| +21.4% to +28.9% | 0 |
| +28.9% to +36.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 29 | -0.97% | -0.91% | 37.9% | 10.93% | -10.20% |
| 3 days | 29 | 1.48% | 1.06% | 65.5% | 14.47% | -14.17% |
| 7 days | 28 | -0.71% | -1.44% | 50.0% | 27.98% | -25.96% |
| 14 days | 28 | -0.24% | -1.33% | 46.4% | 36.40% | -31.28% |
| 30 days | 28 | -1.63% | -3.12% | 42.9% | 41.44% | -38.72% |
| 90 days | 22 | -23.78% | -18.23% | 18.2% | 38.94% | -44.98% |
Historical occurrences
29 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | -1.73 | $101.57 | -2.89% | +0.18% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | -0.97 | $74.55 | +1.91% | +14.47% | +27.98% | +36.40% | +29.95% | — |
| 2026-07-30 | -0.22 | $73.61 | +1.16% | -2.33% | +0.51% | +2.65% | +41.44% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | -2.56 | $73.91 | +0.77% | +0.32% | -1.51% | -0.39% | +29.09% | — |
| 2026-07-18 | -0.36 | $75.00 | +0.64% | +3.66% | -1.46% | -2.94% | -0.61% | — |
| 2026-06-24 | -3.12 | $69.61 | -2.38% | +3.17% | +5.68% | +15.77% | +8.97% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -3.24 | $69.65 | +0.04% | +3.98% | -2.90% | +15.75% | +8.37% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | -8.65 | $74.14 | -3.50% | -14.17% | -12.43% | -0.91% | +8.74% | +38.94% |
| 2026-05-27 | -1.54 | $83.67 | -1.60% | -2.02% | -11.39% | -22.40% | -19.17% | +18.17% |
| 2026-05-18 | -1.54 | $85.18 | +0.16% | +1.03% | +0.05% | -3.34% | -13.76% | -11.63% |
| 2026-04-30 | -1.20 | $83.04 | +0.01% | +1.48% | +7.38% | +9.73% | -1.27% | -11.16% |
| 2026-04-20 | -3.08 | $83.51 | +2.14% | +4.10% | +4.11% | +0.40% | +0.82% | -9.61% |
| 2026-03-29 | -1.08 | $82.11 | -0.88% | +1.13% | -1.46% | +3.44% | +3.29% | -12.54% |
| 2026-03-20 | -1.08 | $89.14 | +0.83% | -2.95% | -2.89% | -11.32% | -3.33% | -19.24% |
| 2026-03-08 | -1.31 | $83.62 | -2.08% | +2.72% | +5.50% | +3.97% | -4.16% | -23.90% |
| 2026-02-11 | -4.41 | $82.98 | -4.12% | +1.78% | +2.85% | -4.61% | +4.74% | +17.20% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.83 | $78.40 | +10.93% | +11.26% | +0.29% | +5.42% | +6.66% | +13.73% |
| 2026-01-31 | -0.34 | $117.48 | -10.20% | -11.14% | -25.96% | -28.11% | -28.72% | -29.31% |
| 2026-01-25 | -0.05 | $127.39 | -6.85% | -0.15% | -17.19% | -31.28% | -38.56% | -32.32% |
| 2026-01-20 | -1.54 | $133.41 | -5.48% | -3.68% | -6.92% | -21.75% | -38.72% | -37.41% |
| 2025-12-25 | -1.27 | $122.46 | -1.99% | +1.81% | +1.68% | +11.22% | +4.08% | -25.73% |
| 2025-12-07 | -0.73 | $132.26 | -0.23% | +4.26% | +0.69% | -4.90% | +4.34% | -35.94% |
| 2025-11-30 | -1.00 | $136.02 | -1.62% | +1.95% | -2.77% | -2.10% | -9.49% | -39.68% |
| 2025-11-22 | -3.77 | $128.57 | -0.79% | +7.61% | +6.87% | +3.62% | -1.98% | -35.72% |
| 2025-11-14 | -5.65 | $144.60 | -3.88% | -5.16% | -7.60% | -2.60% | -7.91% | -44.98% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-17: +27.98%
- 2026-04-30: +7.38%
- 2025-11-22: +6.87%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-31: -25.96%
- 2026-01-25: -17.19%
- 2025-10-30: -16.29%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 3 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.