Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
Solana has recorded 11 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.52% and 27.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -21.1% to -17.2% | 2 |
| -17.2% to -13.3% | 2 |
| -13.3% to -9.4% | 2 |
| -9.4% to -5.4% | 0 |
| -5.4% to -1.5% | 1 |
| -1.5% to +2.4% | 2 |
| +2.4% to +6.4% | 1 |
| +6.4% to +10.3% | 0 |
| +10.3% to +14.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 11 | -4.62% | -2.80% | 27.3% | 5.90% | -7.52% |
| 3 days | 11 | -3.26% | -3.21% | 27.3% | 10.49% | -24.89% |
| 7 days | 11 | -3.52% | -2.72% | 27.3% | 21.39% | -17.01% |
| 14 days | 11 | -9.83% | -7.33% | 36.4% | 14.24% | -21.15% |
| 30 days | 11 | -12.69% | -8.14% | 18.2% | 18.74% | -28.35% |
| 90 days | 11 | -26.70% | -21.03% | 18.2% | 45.89% | -44.88% |
Historical occurrences
11 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | -16.13 | $68.81 | -7.52% | -3.47% | -2.90% | +1.22% | +18.74% | +45.89% |
| 2026-02-10 | -16.85 | $86.80 | -4.41% | -9.42% | -0.26% | -9.83% | -0.28% | +11.07% |
| 2026-02-03 | -15.94 | $104.39 | -6.48% | -24.89% | -16.85% | -17.07% | -12.76% | -19.69% |
| 2026-02-01 | -17.19 | $105.49 | -4.37% | -7.45% | -17.01% | -16.43% | -17.77% | -20.62% |
| 2025-11-17 | -16.59 | $137.14 | -4.62% | -0.31% | -4.78% | -2.42% | -5.86% | -35.71% |
| 2025-11-09 | -15.31 | $157.80 | +4.19% | -1.99% | -11.74% | -19.17% | -15.57% | -44.88% |
| 2025-11-04 | -16.54 | $165.89 | -6.44% | -6.53% | +0.90% | -21.15% | -12.69% | -39.19% |
| 2025-10-16 | -15.33 | $193.98 | -4.80% | -3.26% | -7.16% | +0.05% | -28.35% | -24.87% |
| 2025-10-11 | -18.99 | $188.79 | -5.72% | +10.49% | -3.52% | +2.51% | -12.91% | -26.70% |
| 2025-09-28 | -15.03 | $203.56 | +3.53% | +2.60% | +12.01% | -12.57% | -2.35% | -39.97% |
| 2025-09-26 | -21.89 | $193.41 | +5.90% | +8.96% | +21.39% | +14.24% | +0.27% | -36.68% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +21.39%
- 2025-09-28: +12.01%
- 2025-11-04: +0.90%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -17.01%
- 2026-02-03: -16.85%
- 2025-11-09: -11.74%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.