Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After a 10% One-Day Drop?
Solana has recorded 4 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.62% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 4 | -5.05% | -1.40% | 25.0% | 10.93% | -6.44% |
| 3 days | 4 | 1.98% | 1.94% | 50.0% | 11.26% | -7.45% |
| 7 days | 4 | -1.62% | -4.84% | 50.0% | 0.90% | -17.01% |
| 14 days | 4 | -6.96% | -7.41% | 50.0% | 5.42% | -21.15% |
| 30 days | 4 | -12.80% | -9.18% | 25.0% | 6.66% | -17.77% |
| 90 days | 4 | -23.66% | -18.20% | 25.0% | 13.73% | -39.19% |
Historical occurrences
4 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | -14.83 | $78.40 | +10.93% | +11.26% | +0.29% | +5.42% | +6.66% | +13.73% |
| 2026-02-01 | -10.20 | $105.49 | -4.37% | -7.45% | -17.01% | -16.43% | -17.77% | -20.62% |
| 2025-11-04 | -11.61 | $165.89 | -6.44% | -6.53% | +0.90% | -21.15% | -12.69% | -39.19% |
| 2025-10-11 | -14.56 | $188.79 | -5.72% | +10.49% | -3.52% | +2.51% | -12.91% | -26.70% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +0.90%
- 2026-02-06: +0.29%
- 2025-10-11: -3.52%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -17.01%
- 2025-10-11: -3.52%
- 2026-02-06: +0.29%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.