Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
Solana has recorded 15 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.32% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -26.0% to -20.9% | 1 |
| -20.9% to -15.8% | 1 |
| -15.8% to -10.8% | 0 |
| -10.8% to -5.7% | 1 |
| -5.7% to -0.7% | 7 |
| -0.7% to +4.4% | 1 |
| +4.4% to +9.5% | 2 |
| +9.5% to +14.5% | 0 |
| +14.5% to +19.6% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 15 | -1.96% | -1.86% | 20.0% | 10.93% | -10.20% |
| 3 days | 15 | -1.08% | -1.23% | 46.7% | 11.26% | -24.89% |
| 7 days | 15 | -3.32% | -1.74% | 33.3% | 19.59% | -25.96% |
| 14 days | 15 | -0.11% | -2.83% | 46.7% | 17.65% | -28.11% |
| 30 days | 14 | -7.15% | -8.59% | 28.6% | 18.74% | -42.79% |
| 90 days | 12 | -22.71% | -15.56% | 16.7% | 45.89% | -41.41% |
Historical occurrences
15 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | 3.10 | $85.33 | +2.72% | +10.02% | +19.59% | +17.65% | — | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 1.54 | $75.01 | -1.93% | +7.47% | +9.16% | -0.11% | -1.87% | — |
| 2026-06-27 | 1.69 | $71.81 | -1.96% | +4.46% | +14.59% | +8.71% | +6.79% | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 1.75 | $68.81 | -7.52% | -3.47% | -2.90% | +1.22% | +18.74% | +45.89% |
| 2026-04-17 | 1.59 | $89.10 | -0.30% | -6.27% | -3.32% | -6.80% | -2.89% | -13.31% |
| 2026-04-08 | 1.65 | $85.74 | -3.74% | -1.08% | -2.24% | +0.36% | +3.14% | -4.49% |
| 2026-03-17 | 1.62 | $95.89 | -1.05% | -7.04% | -4.46% | -14.02% | -11.40% | -25.73% |
| 2026-03-05 | 1.74 | $91.07 | -2.33% | -8.18% | -4.96% | -1.05% | -11.68% | -18.59% |
| 2026-02-06 | 1.87 | $78.40 | +10.93% | +11.26% | +0.29% | +5.42% | +6.66% | +13.73% |
| 2026-02-03 | 1.57 | $104.39 | -6.48% | -24.89% | -16.85% | -17.07% | -12.76% | -19.69% |
| 2026-01-31 | 1.51 | $117.48 | -10.20% | -11.14% | -25.96% | -28.11% | -28.72% | -29.31% |
| 2026-01-13 | 1.61 | $139.07 | +4.79% | +2.38% | -4.07% | -10.70% | -42.79% | -41.41% |
| 2025-11-22 | 1.65 | $128.57 | -0.79% | +7.61% | +6.87% | +3.62% | -1.98% | -35.72% |
| 2025-10-15 | 1.59 | $202.58 | -4.25% | -10.09% | -8.32% | -4.09% | -28.62% | -31.35% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.07 | $188.79 | -5.72% | +10.49% | -3.52% | +2.51% | -12.91% | -26.70% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +19.59%
- 2026-06-27: +14.59%
- 2026-06-30: +9.16%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-31: -25.96%
- 2026-02-03: -16.85%
- 2025-10-15: -8.32%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.