Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
Rain has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.11% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -10.7% to -0.4% | 5 |
| -0.4% to +10.0% | 6 |
| +10.0% to +20.3% | 1 |
| +20.3% to +30.6% | 0 |
| +30.6% to +41.0% | 0 |
| +41.0% to +51.3% | 0 |
| +51.3% to +61.7% | 0 |
| +61.7% to +72.0% | 1 |
| +72.0% to +82.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | 0.33% | 1.19% | 57.1% | 18.23% | -6.39% |
| 3 days | 14 | 1.89% | 5.80% | 64.3% | 52.93% | -4.39% |
| 7 days | 14 | 0.11% | 6.83% | 50.0% | 89.63% | -11.32% |
| 14 days | 14 | 3.48% | 11.47% | 64.3% | 82.36% | -10.73% |
| 30 days | 14 | 12.38% | 31.74% | 71.4% | 151.90% | -10.95% |
| 90 days | 11 | 75.25% | 76.31% | 72.7% | 200.53% | -17.73% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $0.01 | -1.99% | -1.28% | +1.16% | +3.15% | +31.86% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $0.01 | -4.61% | -3.22% | -5.93% | -5.85% | +32.17% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $0.01 | +3.22% | +1.33% | -1.88% | -4.43% | -10.95% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $0.01 | +0.33% | +52.93% | +89.63% | +70.54% | +111.71% | +98.99% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $0.01 | +0.62% | +1.44% | +8.58% | +82.36% | +96.88% | +75.25% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $0.01 | -0.90% | +2.46% | -7.73% | +4.08% | -2.83% | -17.73% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $0.01 | +6.31% | +17.60% | +18.18% | +6.45% | +15.51% | -10.87% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $0.01 | +7.24% | +3.09% | +12.76% | +18.44% | +9.26% | -6.49% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $0.01 | +0.52% | +5.61% | +3.80% | +3.80% | +20.31% | +22.47% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $0.01 | +0.33% | +2.35% | -0.93% | +2.83% | +6.80% | +24.66% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $0.00 | -6.39% | -0.71% | +4.58% | +5.47% | +151.90% | +200.53% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $0.00 | -4.39% | -0.97% | -9.61% | -9.66% | +1.55% | +168.68% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $0.00 | -1.85% | -4.39% | -11.32% | -5.88% | -10.51% | +158.89% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $0.00 | +18.23% | +4.99% | -5.68% | -10.73% | -9.27% | +125.01% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-24: +89.63%
- 2026-01-21: +18.18%
- 2026-01-10: +12.76%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-17: -11.32%
- 2025-10-22: -9.61%
- 2026-01-30: -7.73%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.