Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Rain
14 historical signal(s) detected for Rain; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $0.0037 | $0.0035 | -5.68% | 94.32 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $0.0034 | $0.0030 | -9.61% | 85.26 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $0.0032 | $0.0034 | +4.58% | 89.16 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $0.0075 | $0.0074 | -0.93% | 88.33 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $0.0074 | $0.0077 | +3.80% | 91.69 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $0.0084 | $0.0095 | +12.76% | 103.39 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $0.0085 | $0.0100 | +18.18% | 122.19 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.0095 | $0.0088 | -7.73% | 112.74 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $0.0074 | $0.0080 | +8.58% | 122.41 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $0.0144 | $0.0141 | -1.88% | 120.10 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $0.0133 | $0.0125 | -5.93% | 112.98 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.