Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
Rain has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.50% and 41.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -10.8% to +4.8% | 8 |
| +4.8% to +20.3% | 2 |
| +20.3% to +35.8% | 1 |
| +35.8% to +51.4% | 0 |
| +51.4% to +66.9% | 0 |
| +66.9% to +82.4% | 0 |
| +82.4% to +98.0% | 0 |
| +98.0% to +113.5% | 0 |
| +113.5% to +129.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -0.21% | 1.99% | 50.0% | 12.20% | -1.86% |
| 3 days | 12 | 1.13% | 1.95% | 58.3% | 15.68% | -5.66% |
| 7 days | 12 | -0.50% | 1.42% | 41.7% | 14.64% | -8.34% |
| 14 days | 12 | 3.20% | 15.42% | 83.3% | 129.04% | -10.77% |
| 30 days | 12 | 10.51% | 26.57% | 66.7% | 126.54% | -15.61% |
| 90 days | 11 | 20.99% | 42.11% | 72.7% | 205.27% | -26.06% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $0.01 | -1.86% | -3.04% | -0.26% | +2.31% | -15.61% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $0.01 | +2.81% | -5.66% | -8.34% | +2.27% | +12.46% | +20.99% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $0.01 | -1.22% | -1.02% | -5.67% | -10.77% | -13.34% | +64.66% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $0.01 | -0.90% | +2.46% | -7.73% | +4.08% | -2.83% | -17.73% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $0.01 | +6.38% | +4.46% | +2.09% | -3.74% | -2.12% | -26.06% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $0.01 | +12.20% | +10.90% | +10.72% | +3.55% | +6.78% | -13.84% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $0.01 | +0.23% | +0.33% | +12.87% | +19.17% | +17.44% | +1.73% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $0.01 | +9.96% | +15.68% | +14.64% | +25.75% | +42.33% | +28.43% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $0.01 | -0.52% | -4.72% | -3.53% | +2.86% | +14.37% | +14.67% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $0.01 | +0.11% | +2.27% | -0.75% | +2.15% | +8.56% | +21.24% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $0.00 | -1.70% | -0.24% | +5.20% | +129.04% | +124.29% | +205.27% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $0.00 | -1.58% | +1.94% | -2.18% | +8.33% | +126.54% | +163.81% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-26: +14.64%
- 2026-01-01: +12.87%
- 2026-01-22: +10.72%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-03: -8.34%
- 2026-01-30: -7.73%
- 2026-03-20: -5.67%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.