Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 20, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Rain
12 historical signal(s) detected for Rain; 9 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $0.0033 | $0.0033 | -2.18% | 97.82 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $0.0075 | $0.0075 | -0.75% | 97.09 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $0.0079 | $0.0076 | -3.53% | 93.66 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $0.0070 | $0.0080 | +14.64% | 107.37 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $0.0090 | $0.0100 | +10.72% | 118.89 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.0095 | $0.0088 | -7.73% | 109.70 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $0.0089 | $0.0084 | -5.67% | 103.48 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $0.0138 | $0.0127 | -8.34% | 94.85 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $0.0149 | $0.0148 | -0.26% | 94.60 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.