Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Rain
20 historical signal(s) detected for Rain; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $0.0043 | $0.0030 | -30.58% | 69.42 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $0.0044 | $0.0035 | -20.08% | 55.48 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $0.0076 | $0.0082 | +7.61% | 59.70 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $0.0077 | $0.0077 | -0.00% | 59.70 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $0.0090 | $0.0085 | -6.15% | 56.03 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $0.0095 | $0.0100 | +5.74% | 59.25 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $0.0100 | $0.0096 | -4.19% | 56.76 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $0.0095 | $0.0092 | -2.72% | 55.22 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $0.0092 | $0.0089 | -3.11% | 53.50 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $0.0087 | $0.0077 | -11.52% | 47.34 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $0.0076 | $0.0077 | +1.95% | 48.26 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $0.0134 | $0.0131 | -2.74% | 46.94 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $0.0148 | $0.0152 | +2.57% | 48.15 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $0.0140 | $0.0175 | +25.52% | 60.44 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $0.0171 | $0.0157 | -8.51% | 55.29 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.