Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After a 5% One-Day Drop?
Rain has recorded 25 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 8.79% and 68.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -23.6% to -13.3% | 1 |
| -13.3% to -3.0% | 6 |
| -3.0% to +7.2% | 7 |
| +7.2% to +17.5% | 7 |
| +17.5% to +27.8% | 2 |
| +27.8% to +38.1% | 1 |
| +38.1% to +48.4% | 0 |
| +48.4% to +58.7% | 0 |
| +58.7% to +68.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 26 | -0.42% | 1.37% | 46.2% | 14.66% | -14.63% |
| 3 days | 25 | 2.58% | 3.29% | 60.0% | 29.10% | -12.29% |
| 7 days | 25 | 8.79% | 7.25% | 68.0% | 63.61% | -17.51% |
| 14 days | 25 | 5.53% | 7.41% | 72.0% | 68.94% | -23.62% |
| 30 days | 23 | 10.93% | 22.50% | 73.9% | 151.90% | -19.65% |
| 90 days | 22 | 104.35% | 93.55% | 86.4% | 222.18% | -17.91% |
Historical occurrences
26 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | -5.88 | $0.01 | -1.59% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -5.35 | $0.02 | +0.17% | +0.43% | +0.28% | -9.10% | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | -6.56 | $0.01 | -0.34% | +29.10% | +25.28% | +20.47% | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | -5.71 | $0.01 | -2.46% | -3.58% | -3.98% | -12.31% | +4.99% | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -7.78 | $0.01 | -0.98% | +1.89% | +0.02% | +10.83% | +16.04% | +31.62% |
| 2026-06-02 | -5.43 | $0.01 | +2.19% | +4.53% | -1.77% | +1.78% | +14.94% | +23.42% |
| 2026-04-26 | -6.58 | $0.01 | +6.85% | +5.71% | +8.54% | +5.41% | +14.12% | +99.80% |
| 2026-04-06 | -10.03 | $0.01 | -1.37% | +19.22% | +20.07% | +13.85% | +10.93% | +132.18% |
| 2026-04-04 | -5.61 | $0.01 | -1.16% | -12.29% | +9.84% | +2.05% | +0.47% | +108.10% |
| 2026-03-31 | -6.72 | $0.01 | +5.82% | +2.58% | -15.07% | +5.53% | +1.42% | +101.97% |
| 2026-03-27 | -7.15 | $0.01 | -0.70% | -1.14% | -5.41% | -6.01% | -15.64% | +89.85% |
| 2026-02-06 | -5.89 | $0.01 | +8.16% | +4.71% | +12.80% | +11.49% | +2.74% | -17.91% |
| 2026-02-04 | -5.25 | $0.01 | +3.41% | +5.26% | +12.19% | +10.17% | +3.72% | -17.15% |
| 2026-01-21 | -6.18 | $0.01 | +6.31% | +17.60% | +18.18% | +6.45% | +15.51% | -10.87% |
| 2025-12-26 | -12.93 | $0.01 | +9.96% | +15.68% | +14.64% | +25.75% | +42.33% | +28.43% |
| 2025-12-23 | -5.77 | $0.01 | +11.75% | -2.19% | +11.50% | +13.92% | +25.54% | +22.38% |
| 2025-11-28 | -5.09 | $0.01 | -1.44% | +3.93% | +8.79% | +8.29% | +13.91% | +31.81% |
| 2025-11-04 | -8.49 | $0.00 | -6.39% | -0.71% | +4.58% | +5.47% | +151.90% | +200.53% |
| 2025-10-27 | -5.12 | $0.00 | -0.49% | -2.61% | +11.93% | +9.93% | +145.32% | +215.46% |
| 2025-10-14 | -6.68 | $0.00 | -4.85% | -10.43% | -17.51% | -23.62% | -19.65% | +116.83% |
| 2025-10-08 | -5.01 | $0.00 | -14.63% | -3.00% | +11.43% | -4.59% | -8.58% | +132.04% |
| 2025-10-04 | -6.82 | $0.00 | -2.77% | -4.71% | -12.20% | -6.81% | -8.92% | +106.74% |
| 2025-10-01 | -5.44 | $0.00 | +14.66% | +2.99% | -6.77% | +3.88% | -7.97% | +111.74% |
| 2025-09-26 | -8.27 | $0.00 | +1.57% | +12.93% | +19.39% | -7.70% | -4.60% | +130.42% |
| 2025-09-14 | -11.97 | $0.00 | +5.72% | +4.77% | +63.61% | +68.94% | +78.77% | +222.18% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-14: +63.61%
- 2026-08-23: +25.28%
- 2026-04-06: +20.07%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-14: -17.51%
- 2026-03-31: -15.07%
- 2025-10-04: -12.20%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.