Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After 3 Consecutive Red Days?
Rain has recorded 27 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.37% and 44.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -20.9% to -3.3% | 11 |
| -3.3% to +14.3% | 7 |
| +14.3% to +31.8% | 3 |
| +31.8% to +49.4% | 1 |
| +49.4% to +66.9% | 0 |
| +66.9% to +84.5% | 1 |
| +84.5% to +102.1% | 1 |
| +102.1% to +119.6% | 0 |
| +119.6% to +137.2% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 27 | -0.12% | 1.08% | 48.1% | 11.75% | -4.63% |
| 3 days | 27 | 0.75% | 1.43% | 51.9% | 19.22% | -6.90% |
| 7 days | 27 | -0.37% | 2.75% | 44.4% | 63.61% | -14.96% |
| 14 days | 26 | 1.57% | 8.53% | 53.8% | 129.04% | -18.39% |
| 30 days | 26 | 6.48% | 16.99% | 53.8% | 137.17% | -20.86% |
| 90 days | 22 | 51.07% | 70.51% | 72.7% | 234.32% | -24.12% |
Historical occurrences
28 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -1.59 | $0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | -0.62 | $0.02 | -1.68% | -4.73% | -13.27% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | -3.37 | $0.01 | +4.99% | +1.32% | +3.03% | +3.11% | +35.95% | — |
| 2026-07-18 | -2.85 | $0.01 | +3.45% | -0.34% | -0.37% | -10.05% | -8.15% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | -0.02 | $0.02 | -0.37% | -2.65% | -7.67% | -6.29% | -20.86% | — |
| 2026-06-28 | -0.73 | $0.02 | -0.12% | +0.99% | -1.13% | -6.81% | -11.93% | — |
| 2026-06-07 | -0.98 | $0.01 | +4.16% | -1.88% | +0.68% | +12.00% | +16.96% | +28.56% |
| 2026-06-02 | -5.43 | $0.01 | +2.19% | +4.53% | -1.77% | +1.78% | +14.94% | +23.42% |
| 2026-05-05 | -0.46 | $0.01 | -1.36% | -0.19% | +0.75% | -0.71% | +90.23% | +72.89% |
| 2026-04-06 | -10.03 | $0.01 | -1.37% | +19.22% | +20.07% | +13.85% | +10.93% | +132.18% |
| 2026-03-29 | -2.68 | $0.01 | +2.31% | +0.98% | -8.67% | -2.96% | -11.11% | +94.39% |
| 2026-03-21 | -1.22 | $0.01 | -4.63% | -0.47% | -5.18% | -14.73% | -13.67% | +65.79% |
| 2026-03-09 | -1.48 | $0.01 | +1.10% | +0.75% | +2.92% | -1.17% | -14.52% | +45.37% |
| 2026-03-01 | -1.40 | $0.01 | -1.17% | -0.56% | -2.43% | -2.08% | -16.52% | +56.77% |
| 2026-02-23 | -0.95 | $0.01 | -0.46% | +1.34% | -2.53% | -5.19% | -5.09% | -19.19% |
| 2026-02-13 | -1.95 | $0.01 | +1.39% | -0.15% | -1.16% | -4.79% | -8.59% | -24.12% |
| 2026-02-04 | -5.25 | $0.01 | +3.41% | +5.26% | +12.19% | +10.17% | +3.72% | -17.15% |
| 2026-01-30 | -4.62 | $0.01 | -0.90% | +2.46% | -7.73% | +4.08% | -2.83% | -17.73% |
| 2026-01-19 | -3.58 | $0.01 | -0.72% | -0.97% | +4.97% | +7.16% | +9.24% | -15.48% |
| 2026-01-10 | -4.68 | $0.01 | +7.24% | +3.09% | +12.76% | +18.44% | +9.26% | -6.49% |
| 2025-12-23 | -5.77 | $0.01 | +11.75% | -2.19% | +11.50% | +13.92% | +25.54% | +22.38% |
| 2025-11-28 | -5.09 | $0.01 | -1.44% | +3.93% | +8.79% | +8.29% | +13.91% | +31.81% |
| 2025-11-13 | -0.35 | $0.00 | -1.70% | -0.24% | +5.20% | +129.04% | +124.29% | +205.27% |
| 2025-10-29 | -3.58 | $0.00 | +1.51% | +14.18% | -0.06% | +9.49% | +137.17% | +234.32% |
| 2025-10-23 | -4.39 | $0.00 | +1.96% | +3.85% | -4.04% | +1.37% | +12.16% | +163.65% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-14: +63.61%
- 2026-04-06: +20.07%
- 2026-01-10: +12.76%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-16: -14.96%
- 2026-09-09: -13.27%
- 2026-03-29: -8.67%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 3 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.