Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After a 3% One-Day Drop?
Rain has recorded 46 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.95% and 60.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -14.6% to -11.4% | 1 |
| -11.4% to -8.1% | 0 |
| -8.1% to -4.9% | 3 |
| -4.9% to -1.6% | 5 |
| -1.6% to +1.6% | 18 |
| +1.6% to +4.9% | 9 |
| +4.9% to +8.1% | 7 |
| +8.1% to +11.4% | 2 |
| +11.4% to +14.7% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 47 | 0.52% | 1.19% | 55.3% | 14.66% | -14.63% |
| 3 days | 46 | 2.37% | 2.21% | 58.7% | 29.10% | -17.24% |
| 7 days | 46 | 2.95% | 4.38% | 60.9% | 63.61% | -22.69% |
| 14 days | 45 | 4.08% | 4.91% | 62.2% | 68.94% | -23.62% |
| 30 days | 42 | 9.25% | 20.36% | 69.0% | 151.90% | -19.65% |
| 90 days | 40 | 87.77% | 79.61% | 80.0% | 234.32% | -26.06% |
Historical occurrences
47 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | -3.62 | $0.02 | -5.88% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | -3.28 | $0.02 | +2.17% | -1.77% | -6.99% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -5.35 | $0.02 | +0.17% | +0.43% | +0.28% | -9.10% | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | -3.50 | $0.02 | -1.19% | +0.56% | -4.40% | -9.15% | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | -6.56 | $0.01 | -0.34% | +29.10% | +25.28% | +20.47% | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | -3.16 | $0.01 | -4.61% | -3.22% | -5.93% | -5.85% | +32.17% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | -5.71 | $0.01 | -2.46% | -3.58% | -3.98% | -12.31% | +4.99% | — |
| 2026-06-10 | -4.65 | $0.01 | +3.55% | +2.95% | +11.58% | +23.72% | +13.29% | +28.71% |
| 2026-06-06 | -7.78 | $0.01 | -0.98% | +1.89% | +0.02% | +10.83% | +16.04% | +31.62% |
| 2026-06-02 | -5.43 | $0.01 | +2.19% | +4.53% | -1.77% | +1.78% | +14.94% | +23.42% |
| 2026-04-28 | -4.70 | $0.01 | +3.82% | +9.13% | +3.96% | +4.73% | +102.06% | +96.10% |
| 2026-04-26 | -6.58 | $0.01 | +6.85% | +5.71% | +8.54% | +5.41% | +14.12% | +99.80% |
| 2026-04-15 | -4.91 | $0.01 | +1.36% | -1.53% | +0.22% | -3.63% | -2.25% | +85.69% |
| 2026-04-12 | -4.38 | $0.01 | +1.67% | -1.32% | -2.03% | -10.04% | -4.06% | +83.87% |
| 2026-04-06 | -10.03 | $0.01 | -1.37% | +19.22% | +20.07% | +13.85% | +10.93% | +132.18% |
| 2026-04-04 | -5.61 | $0.01 | -1.16% | -12.29% | +9.84% | +2.05% | +0.47% | +108.10% |
| 2026-04-02 | -3.57 | $0.01 | +0.52% | -6.21% | +0.60% | -0.32% | -0.25% | +100.13% |
| 2026-03-31 | -6.72 | $0.01 | +5.82% | +2.58% | -15.07% | +5.53% | +1.42% | +101.97% |
| 2026-03-27 | -7.15 | $0.01 | -0.70% | -1.14% | -5.41% | -6.01% | -15.64% | +89.85% |
| 2026-03-22 | -4.63 | $0.01 | +5.07% | +6.43% | -3.24% | -11.63% | -9.63% | +72.99% |
| 2026-02-06 | -5.89 | $0.01 | +8.16% | +4.71% | +12.80% | +11.49% | +2.74% | -17.91% |
| 2026-02-04 | -5.25 | $0.01 | +3.41% | +5.26% | +12.19% | +10.17% | +3.72% | -17.15% |
| 2026-01-30 | -4.62 | $0.01 | -0.90% | +2.46% | -7.73% | +4.08% | -2.83% | -17.73% |
| 2026-01-26 | -4.42 | $0.01 | +6.38% | +4.46% | +2.09% | -3.74% | -2.12% | -26.06% |
| 2026-01-21 | -6.18 | $0.01 | +6.31% | +17.60% | +18.18% | +6.45% | +15.51% | -10.87% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-14: +63.61%
- 2026-08-23: +25.28%
- 2025-10-06: +21.65%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-03: -22.69%
- 2025-10-14: -17.51%
- 2026-03-31: -15.07%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.