Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Rain
47 historical signal(s) detected for Rain; 25 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (22 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-19 | $0.0027 | $0.0024 | -9.18% | 90.82 |
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $0.0035 | $0.0042 | +19.39% | 108.42 |
| 2025-10-03 | 2025-10-10 | $0.0042 | $0.0032 | -22.69% | 83.83 |
| 2025-10-14 | 2025-10-21 | $0.0041 | $0.0034 | -17.51% | 69.15 |
| 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-28 | $0.0034 | $0.0031 | -7.40% | 64.03 |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-05 | $0.0030 | $0.0030 | -0.06% | 63.99 |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-12-05 | $0.0072 | $0.0078 | +8.79% | 69.62 |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-12 | $0.0078 | $0.0078 | -0.46% | 69.30 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $0.0074 | $0.0077 | +3.80% | 71.93 |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-30 | $0.0072 | $0.0080 | +11.50% | 80.21 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $0.0084 | $0.0095 | +12.76% | 90.44 |
| 2026-01-19 | 2026-01-26 | $0.0091 | $0.0095 | +4.97% | 94.94 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $0.0095 | $0.0097 | +2.09% | 96.92 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2026-02-11 | $0.0090 | $0.0101 | +12.19% | 108.74 |
| 2026-03-22 | 2026-03-29 | $0.0083 | $0.0081 | -3.24% | 105.22 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-07 | $0.0077 | $0.0065 | -15.07% | 89.36 |
| 2026-04-12 | 2026-04-19 | $0.0078 | $0.0077 | -2.03% | 87.55 |
| 2026-04-26 | 2026-05-03 | $0.0071 | $0.0077 | +8.54% | 95.03 |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-09 | $0.0135 | $0.0133 | -1.77% | 93.34 |
| 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-17 | $0.0127 | $0.0141 | +11.58% | 104.15 |
| 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-30 | $0.0143 | $0.0138 | -3.98% | 100.01 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $0.0133 | $0.0125 | -5.93% | 94.08 |
| 2026-08-23 | 2026-08-30 | $0.0141 | $0.0176 | +25.28% | 117.87 |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-07 | $0.0167 | $0.0167 | +0.28% | 118.20 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.