Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After a 20% 30-Day Correction?
Rain has recorded 4 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 3.45% and 75.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 4 | 0.58% | -0.97% | 50.0% | 4.99% | -10.03% |
| 3 days | 4 | 2.08% | 4.05% | 75.0% | 14.18% | -2.16% |
| 7 days | 4 | 3.45% | 3.27% | 75.0% | 6.25% | -0.06% |
| 14 days | 4 | 6.79% | 37.56% | 100.0% | 133.53% | 3.11% |
| 30 days | 4 | 85.26% | 77.22% | 100.0% | 137.17% | 1.18% |
| 90 days | 3 | 210.50% | 184.86% | 100.0% | 234.32% | 109.75% |
Historical occurrences
4 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | -20.86 | $0.01 | +4.99% | +1.32% | +3.03% | +3.11% | +35.95% | — |
| 2026-04-05 | -21.06 | $0.01 | -10.03% | +2.85% | +6.25% | +4.10% | +1.18% | +109.75% |
| 2025-11-12 | -24.75 | $0.00 | -0.35% | -2.16% | +3.86% | +133.53% | +134.57% | +210.50% |
| 2025-10-29 | -23.10 | $0.00 | +1.51% | +14.18% | -0.06% | +9.49% | +137.17% | +234.32% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-04-05: +6.25%
- 2025-11-12: +3.86%
- 2026-08-02: +3.03%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-29: -0.06%
- 2026-08-02: +3.03%
- 2025-11-12: +3.86%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 30 day(s) falls to or below -20%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.