Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After a 15% 30-Day Correction?
Rain has recorded 11 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.94% and 63.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -15.1% to -12.2% | 1 |
| -12.2% to -9.4% | 0 |
| -9.4% to -6.6% | 0 |
| -6.6% to -3.7% | 3 |
| -3.7% to -0.9% | 0 |
| -0.9% to +1.9% | 1 |
| +1.9% to +4.7% | 3 |
| +4.7% to +7.6% | 0 |
| +7.6% to +10.4% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 11 | 0.51% | 0.79% | 54.5% | 7.29% | -4.61% |
| 3 days | 11 | 0.33% | 0.41% | 54.5% | 10.37% | -12.29% |
| 7 days | 11 | 2.94% | 1.09% | 63.6% | 10.41% | -15.07% |
| 14 days | 11 | 2.05% | 16.85% | 63.6% | 133.53% | -6.18% |
| 30 days | 11 | 25.33% | 56.33% | 90.9% | 158.18% | -2.25% |
| 90 days | 9 | 163.65% | 150.18% | 100.0% | 213.51% | 85.69% |
Historical occurrences
11 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | -15.32 | $0.01 | +1.57% | +3.46% | +10.41% | +37.93% | +25.33% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | -15.29 | $0.01 | -4.61% | -3.22% | -5.93% | -5.85% | +32.17% | — |
| 2026-04-24 | -15.48 | $0.01 | +0.51% | +0.33% | +4.34% | -0.79% | +0.74% | +90.95% |
| 2026-04-15 | -15.32 | $0.01 | +1.36% | -1.53% | +0.22% | -3.63% | -2.25% | +85.69% |
| 2026-04-04 | -19.13 | $0.01 | -1.16% | -12.29% | +9.84% | +2.05% | +0.47% | +108.10% |
| 2026-03-31 | -16.52 | $0.01 | +5.82% | +2.58% | -15.07% | +5.53% | +1.42% | +101.97% |
| 2025-11-12 | -24.75 | $0.00 | -0.35% | -2.16% | +3.86% | +133.53% | +134.57% | +210.50% |
| 2025-11-05 | -16.44 | $0.00 | +7.29% | +9.58% | +9.56% | +13.79% | +158.18% | +213.51% |
| 2025-11-01 | -19.93 | $0.00 | -0.12% | -6.50% | -4.08% | -6.18% | +115.88% | +174.23% |
| 2025-10-28 | -19.17 | $0.00 | -3.58% | +10.37% | +2.94% | +7.65% | +140.95% | +203.02% |
| 2025-10-23 | -16.62 | $0.00 | +1.96% | +3.85% | -4.04% | +1.37% | +12.16% | +163.65% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-14: +10.41%
- 2026-04-04: +9.84%
- 2025-11-05: +9.56%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-03-31: -15.07%
- 2026-07-31: -5.93%
- 2025-11-01: -4.08%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 30 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.