Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
Rain has recorded 3 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 20.07% and 66.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 3 | -1.37% | 0.77% | 33.3% | 7.36% | -3.68% |
| 3 days | 3 | 19.22% | 11.50% | 66.7% | 24.31% | -9.03% |
| 7 days | 3 | 20.07% | 11.78% | 66.7% | 25.65% | -10.37% |
| 14 days | 3 | 6.86% | 7.01% | 100.0% | 13.85% | 0.33% |
| 30 days | 3 | 10.64% | 6.45% | 66.7% | 10.93% | -2.20% |
| 90 days | 3 | 167.03% | 168.35% | 100.0% | 205.83% | 132.18% |
Historical occurrences
3 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | -19.68 | $0.01 | -1.37% | +19.22% | +20.07% | +13.85% | +10.93% | +132.18% |
| 2025-10-20 | -20.08 | $0.00 | -3.68% | -9.03% | -10.37% | +0.33% | -2.20% | +167.03% |
| 2025-10-09 | -30.58 | $0.00 | +7.36% | +24.31% | +25.65% | +6.86% | +10.64% | +205.83% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-10-09: +25.65%
- 2026-04-06: +20.07%
- 2025-10-20: -10.37%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-20: -10.37%
- 2026-04-06: +20.07%
- 2025-10-09: +25.65%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.