Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After a 10% Seven-Day Drop?
Rain has recorded 10 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 6.43% and 80.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -3.7% to -2.4% | 1 |
| -2.4% to -1.2% | 2 |
| -1.2% to +0.0% | 2 |
| +0.0% to +1.2% | 2 |
| +1.2% to +2.5% | 0 |
| +2.5% to +3.7% | 0 |
| +3.7% to +4.9% | 1 |
| +4.9% to +6.1% | 2 |
| +6.1% to +7.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 11 | 0.07% | 1.33% | 54.5% | 7.36% | -3.68% |
| 3 days | 10 | -0.28% | 7.13% | 50.0% | 55.91% | -12.29% |
| 7 days | 10 | 6.43% | 10.38% | 80.0% | 57.48% | -15.07% |
| 14 days | 10 | 6.19% | 13.23% | 90.0% | 78.92% | -0.32% |
| 30 days | 10 | 10.78% | 26.90% | 80.0% | 145.32% | -2.20% |
| 90 days | 9 | 132.18% | 142.63% | 100.0% | 224.41% | 28.56% |
Historical occurrences
11 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | -12.41 | $0.01 | -1.59% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | -11.10 | $0.01 | +4.99% | +1.32% | +3.03% | +3.11% | +35.95% | — |
| 2026-06-07 | -10.07 | $0.01 | +4.16% | -1.88% | +0.68% | +12.00% | +16.96% | +28.56% |
| 2026-04-06 | -19.68 | $0.01 | -1.37% | +19.22% | +20.07% | +13.85% | +10.93% | +132.18% |
| 2026-04-04 | -10.08 | $0.01 | -1.16% | -12.29% | +9.84% | +2.05% | +0.47% | +108.10% |
| 2026-04-02 | -12.63 | $0.01 | +0.52% | -6.21% | +0.60% | -0.32% | -0.25% | +100.13% |
| 2026-03-31 | -11.52 | $0.01 | +5.82% | +2.58% | -15.07% | +5.53% | +1.42% | +101.97% |
| 2025-10-27 | -10.37 | $0.00 | -0.49% | -2.61% | +11.93% | +9.93% | +145.32% | +215.46% |
| 2025-10-20 | -20.08 | $0.00 | -3.68% | -9.03% | -10.37% | +0.33% | -2.20% | +167.03% |
| 2025-10-09 | -30.58 | $0.00 | +7.36% | +24.31% | +25.65% | +6.86% | +10.64% | +205.83% |
| 2025-09-18 | -14.75 | $0.00 | +0.07% | +55.91% | +57.48% | +78.92% | +49.78% | +224.41% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-18: +57.48%
- 2025-10-09: +25.65%
- 2026-04-06: +20.07%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-03-31: -15.07%
- 2025-10-20: -10.37%
- 2026-04-02: +0.60%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.