Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
Monero has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.02% and 71.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -1.9% to -1.1% | 1 |
| -1.1% to -0.3% | 1 |
| -0.3% to +0.6% | 2 |
| +0.6% to +1.4% | 0 |
| +1.4% to +2.2% | 0 |
| +2.2% to +3.0% | 1 |
| +3.0% to +3.8% | 1 |
| +3.8% to +4.6% | 0 |
| +4.6% to +5.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $520.42 | +0.03% | +3.64% | -2.34% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $422.15 | -2.83% | +2.52% | +3.66% | +17.03% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $346.57 | -0.51% | -0.96% | +1.96% | +9.64% | +14.46% | -6.57% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $345.96 | +3.51% | -1.88% | +2.02% | -0.94% | -8.53% | -5.85% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $334.24 | -0.15% | -0.16% | +3.50% | +5.59% | -2.31% | +13.64% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $317.16 | +2.17% | +5.41% | +9.41% | +1.55% | +4.05% | +26.01% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $398.33 | +2.54% | +0.26% | -2.54% | +7.65% | +5.77% | -15.09% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-07: +9.41%
- 2026-08-20: +3.66%
- 2026-02-26: +3.50%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-12-03: -2.54%
- 2026-09-04: -2.34%
- 2026-04-14: +1.96%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.