Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Monero has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.63% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -26.5% to -18.9% | 2 |
| -18.9% to -11.3% | 0 |
| -11.3% to -3.7% | 0 |
| -3.7% to +3.9% | 1 |
| +3.9% to +11.5% | 0 |
| +11.5% to +19.1% | 1 |
| +19.1% to +26.7% | 0 |
| +26.7% to +34.3% | 0 |
| +34.3% to +41.9% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 0.95% | 1.26% | 66.7% | 11.67% | -13.48% |
| 3 days | 6 | 0.14% | -1.27% | 50.0% | 14.89% | -19.08% |
| 7 days | 6 | -2.63% | -5.96% | 33.3% | 20.66% | -35.36% |
| 14 days | 6 | 8.64% | 0.07% | 66.7% | 18.71% | -26.46% |
| 30 days | 6 | 6.78% | 7.16% | 50.0% | 41.87% | -26.51% |
| 90 days | 6 | 19.00% | 19.53% | 50.0% | 59.84% | -17.55% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $325.71 | +11.67% | -5.46% | -4.36% | +6.05% | -2.57% | +59.84% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $292.32 | +8.50% | +8.24% | +13.77% | +14.39% | +16.13% | +41.90% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $460.24 | -13.48% | -19.08% | -29.59% | -23.53% | -26.51% | -17.55% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $452.22 | +0.36% | -11.94% | -35.36% | -26.46% | -26.20% | -16.82% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $339.24 | -1.02% | +14.89% | +20.66% | +18.71% | +40.27% | -3.89% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $294.20 | +1.55% | +5.75% | -0.89% | +11.24% | +41.87% | +53.73% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-21: +20.66%
- 2026-02-06: +13.77%
- 2025-10-11: -0.89%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -35.36%
- 2026-02-01: -29.59%
- 2026-06-03: -4.36%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.