Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero When Bitcoin Drops 10% in a Day?
Monero has recorded 1 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 13.77% and 100.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 1 | 8.50% | 8.50% | 100.0% | 8.50% | 8.50% |
| 3 days | 1 | 8.24% | 8.24% | 100.0% | 8.24% | 8.24% |
| 7 days | 1 | 13.77% | 13.77% | 100.0% | 13.77% | 13.77% |
| 14 days | 1 | 14.39% | 14.39% | 100.0% | 14.39% | 14.39% |
| 30 days | 1 | 16.13% | 16.13% | 100.0% | 16.13% | 16.13% |
| 90 days | 1 | 41.90% | 41.90% | 100.0% | 41.90% | 41.90% |
Historical occurrences
1 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $292.32 | +8.50% | +8.24% | +13.77% | +14.39% | +16.13% | +41.90% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +13.77%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +13.77%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.