Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
Monero has recorded 13 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 5.47% and 69.2% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -8.3% to -5.6% | 2 |
| -5.6% to -3.0% | 0 |
| -3.0% to -0.4% | 1 |
| -0.4% to +2.2% | 2 |
| +2.2% to +4.9% | 3 |
| +4.9% to +7.5% | 4 |
| +7.5% to +10.1% | 0 |
| +10.1% to +12.7% | 0 |
| +12.7% to +15.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 13 | 3.37% | 2.75% | 61.5% | 12.08% | -6.90% |
| 3 days | 13 | 3.76% | 3.04% | 76.9% | 15.35% | -8.27% |
| 7 days | 13 | 5.47% | 3.85% | 69.2% | 22.46% | -16.99% |
| 14 days | 13 | 9.37% | 5.11% | 76.9% | 18.94% | -27.95% |
| 30 days | 13 | 11.86% | 11.69% | 76.9% | 42.19% | -46.03% |
| 90 days | 10 | 11.60% | 21.06% | 50.0% | 129.52% | -46.59% |
Historical occurrences
13 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | -0.03 | $366.12 | +0.93% | +3.10% | +7.28% | +15.30% | +42.19% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | -0.03 | $360.08 | -0.56% | +1.12% | +2.62% | +9.17% | +30.67% | — |
| 2026-07-05 | -0.01 | $328.26 | -0.28% | +2.09% | -1.69% | +2.28% | +10.27% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | -0.06 | $347.82 | -0.69% | -8.27% | -8.71% | -9.38% | -5.18% | +48.95% |
| 2026-05-29 | -0.02 | $354.02 | +12.08% | +3.76% | +5.47% | +9.37% | -11.58% | +23.61% |
| 2026-01-13 | -0.02 | $627.97 | +5.98% | +6.57% | -1.71% | -27.95% | -46.03% | -46.59% |
| 2025-12-10 | -0.05 | $388.22 | +3.37% | +4.33% | +10.45% | +15.42% | +16.49% | -13.19% |
| 2025-12-01 | -0.01 | $436.92 | -6.90% | -6.52% | -16.99% | -6.35% | +0.48% | -23.62% |
| 2025-11-26 | -0.01 | $384.63 | +3.62% | +6.90% | +3.56% | +0.93% | +15.42% | -20.39% |
| 2025-11-22 | -0.02 | $335.77 | +10.05% | +15.35% | +22.46% | +18.94% | +40.59% | -0.41% |
| 2025-10-23 | -0.06 | $312.30 | +3.60% | +6.84% | +8.23% | +9.77% | +7.51% | +59.60% |
| 2025-10-18 | -0.04 | $291.57 | +5.71% | +6.34% | +12.24% | +14.84% | +39.25% | +129.52% |
| 2025-09-25 | -0.13 | $292.57 | -1.18% | -2.05% | +6.87% | +14.09% | +11.86% | +53.16% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-22: +22.46%
- 2025-10-18: +12.24%
- 2025-12-10: +10.45%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-12-01: -16.99%
- 2026-06-16: -8.71%
- 2026-01-13: -1.71%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.