Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Falls to -0.01%

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding falls to -0.01%, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Monero

13 historical signal(s) detected for Monero; 10 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades10
Win rate60.0%
Average return / trade+3.10%
Compounded total return+28.58%
Max drawdown-16.99%
Buy & hold, same period+26.30%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-25 2025-10-02 $292.5665 $312.6627 +6.87% 106.87
2025-10-18 2025-10-25 $291.5727 $327.2586 +12.24% 119.95
2025-11-22 2025-11-29 $335.7670 $411.1644 +22.46% 146.88
2025-12-01 2025-12-08 $436.9172 $362.6838 -16.99% 121.93
2025-12-10 2025-12-17 $388.2205 $428.7859 +10.45% 134.67
2026-01-13 2026-01-20 $627.9680 $617.2211 -1.71% 132.36
2026-05-29 2026-06-05 $354.0231 $373.3981 +5.47% 139.61
2026-06-16 2026-06-23 $347.8177 $317.5341 -8.71% 127.45
2026-07-05 2026-07-12 $328.2566 $322.7004 -1.69% 125.29
2026-07-31 2026-08-07 $360.0848 $369.5125 +2.62% 128.58

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Monero ยท Read the full methodology