Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Monero has recorded 25 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.01% and 40.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -19.2% to -15.4% | 1 |
| -15.4% to -11.5% | 0 |
| -11.5% to -7.6% | 0 |
| -7.6% to -3.7% | 6 |
| -3.7% to +0.1% | 8 |
| +0.1% to +4.0% | 5 |
| +4.0% to +7.9% | 3 |
| +7.9% to +11.8% | 0 |
| +11.8% to +15.6% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 25 | -0.71% | -0.26% | 44.0% | 15.65% | -19.24% |
| 3 days | 25 | -1.08% | -1.46% | 40.0% | 27.29% | -18.65% |
| 7 days | 25 | -2.01% | -3.03% | 40.0% | 11.68% | -26.69% |
| 14 days | 23 | -2.22% | -2.98% | 39.1% | 13.07% | -39.09% |
| 30 days | 22 | 3.01% | 1.62% | 63.6% | 31.78% | -47.18% |
| 90 days | 21 | -6.97% | 6.83% | 42.9% | 99.28% | -43.77% |
Historical occurrences
25 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 6.74 | $555.67 | -2.93% | -10.01% | -3.06% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 5.34 | $520.42 | +0.03% | +3.64% | -2.34% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | 6.93 | $520.61 | -3.03% | -0.04% | -0.34% | -1.17% | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 5.93 | $357.28 | -1.36% | +1.77% | -4.36% | -1.74% | +14.82% | — |
| 2026-06-11 | 7.48 | $334.80 | +15.65% | +1.00% | +0.62% | -6.01% | -3.79% | +49.36% |
| 2026-06-04 | 11.67 | $363.73 | +2.66% | -18.65% | -7.95% | -7.38% | -10.89% | +38.80% |
| 2026-05-30 | 12.08 | $396.79 | -6.69% | -13.33% | -22.40% | -10.89% | -21.83% | +14.62% |
| 2026-04-27 | 5.06 | $391.42 | -2.92% | -3.90% | +0.08% | +4.60% | -2.96% | -6.97% |
| 2026-04-22 | 9.12 | $385.59 | -4.86% | -4.51% | -2.01% | +6.85% | +1.76% | -12.53% |
| 2026-04-10 | 5.90 | $346.61 | -0.71% | -3.24% | -0.98% | +9.42% | +18.27% | -7.79% |
| 2026-04-08 | 5.36 | $343.85 | -4.81% | +0.09% | +0.28% | +12.14% | +16.22% | -5.98% |
| 2026-03-23 | 6.53 | $356.42 | -2.45% | -5.27% | -8.25% | -6.88% | +8.18% | -9.99% |
| 2026-02-10 | 5.66 | $334.33 | +3.57% | -0.52% | -3.42% | -8.41% | +5.56% | +22.47% |
| 2026-02-07 | 8.50 | $317.16 | +2.17% | +5.41% | +9.41% | +1.55% | +4.05% | +26.01% |
| 2026-01-20 | 9.91 | $617.22 | -19.24% | -17.88% | -26.69% | -39.09% | -47.18% | -43.77% |
| 2026-01-12 | 25.88 | $554.30 | +13.29% | +27.29% | +1.31% | -19.89% | -37.53% | -38.91% |
| 2025-12-20 | 6.11 | $441.18 | +7.86% | +5.06% | +0.81% | -3.60% | +27.28% | -23.62% |
| 2025-12-01 | 5.88 | $436.92 | -6.90% | -6.52% | -16.99% | -6.35% | +0.48% | -23.62% |
| 2025-11-23 | 10.05 | $369.52 | +5.48% | +4.09% | +11.68% | +6.23% | +25.43% | -12.84% |
| 2025-11-16 | 7.71 | $422.04 | -3.80% | -4.42% | -12.45% | -2.22% | -2.93% | -17.78% |
| 2025-11-10 | 13.61 | $417.37 | -7.19% | -7.09% | -2.72% | -6.62% | -6.98% | -22.36% |
| 2025-10-19 | 5.71 | $308.21 | +2.39% | -1.08% | +8.26% | +13.07% | +31.78% | +99.28% |
| 2025-10-02 | 5.86 | $312.66 | +6.61% | +5.68% | +6.76% | +1.83% | +7.10% | +40.41% |
| 2025-09-15 | 7.03 | $306.58 | -0.21% | -1.64% | -4.48% | -5.23% | +1.97% | +35.14% |
| 2025-09-13 | 5.01 | $284.23 | +0.78% | +7.63% | +3.53% | +1.23% | +6.94% | +43.38% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-23: +11.68%
- 2026-02-07: +9.41%
- 2025-10-19: +8.26%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-20: -26.69%
- 2026-05-30: -22.40%
- 2025-12-01: -16.99%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.