Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 5% One-Day Rise
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 5% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Monero
25 historical signal(s) detected for Monero; 17 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (8 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | 2025-09-20 | $284.2339 | $294.2582 | +3.53% | 103.53 |
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $312.6627 | $333.7949 | +6.76% | 110.52 |
| 2025-10-19 | 2025-10-26 | $308.2084 | $333.6690 | +8.26% | 119.65 |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-17 | $417.3683 | $406.0142 | -2.72% | 116.40 |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-11-30 | $369.5156 | $412.6718 | +11.68% | 129.99 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-08 | $436.9172 | $362.6838 | -16.99% | 107.91 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $441.1812 | $444.7364 | +0.81% | 108.78 |
| 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-19 | $554.3023 | $561.5478 | +1.31% | 110.20 |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-01-27 | $617.2211 | $452.4750 | -26.69% | 80.78 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $317.1561 | $347.0137 | +9.41% | 88.39 |
| 2026-03-23 | 2026-03-30 | $356.4165 | $326.9963 | -8.25% | 81.09 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $343.8464 | $344.8084 | +0.28% | 81.32 |
| 2026-04-22 | 2026-04-29 | $385.5851 | $377.8493 | -2.01% | 79.69 |
| 2026-05-30 | 2026-06-06 | $396.7936 | $307.9241 | -22.40% | 61.84 |
| 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-18 | $334.8012 | $336.8684 | +0.62% | 62.22 |
| 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-29 | $357.2848 | $341.6993 | -4.36% | 59.51 |
| 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-08 | $520.6138 | $518.8243 | -0.34% | 59.30 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.