Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After a 3% One-Day Rise?
Monero has recorded 61 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.09% and 54.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -39.1% to -30.1% | 1 |
| -30.1% to -21.2% | 1 |
| -21.2% to -12.2% | 4 |
| -12.2% to -3.3% | 18 |
| -3.3% to +5.7% | 13 |
| +5.7% to +14.6% | 15 |
| +14.6% to +23.5% | 4 |
| +23.5% to +32.5% | 2 |
| +32.5% to +41.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 62 | -0.36% | -0.26% | 46.8% | 15.65% | -19.24% |
| 3 days | 62 | -0.29% | 0.32% | 48.4% | 27.29% | -18.65% |
| 7 days | 61 | 0.09% | 1.29% | 54.1% | 47.97% | -26.69% |
| 14 days | 59 | 1.23% | 1.32% | 55.9% | 41.44% | -39.09% |
| 30 days | 55 | 4.05% | 4.23% | 63.6% | 56.07% | -47.18% |
| 90 days | 48 | -6.27% | 6.01% | 45.8% | 99.28% | -43.77% |
Historical occurrences
62 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 3.23 | $538.68 | -3.82% | -5.94% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-06 | 6.74 | $555.67 | -2.93% | -10.01% | -3.06% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 5.34 | $520.42 | +0.03% | +3.64% | -2.34% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 3.48 | $486.87 | +6.93% | +1.47% | +10.78% | +6.41% | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | 3.93 | $454.81 | +3.77% | +7.05% | +14.43% | +11.75% | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | 4.94 | $442.38 | -0.73% | +2.81% | +17.69% | +17.28% | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | 4.89 | $432.76 | -2.59% | +1.48% | +8.72% | +28.40% | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | 4.13 | $392.76 | +0.09% | +4.53% | +7.48% | +11.42% | +32.86% | — |
| 2026-08-10 | 4.50 | $394.46 | +0.63% | -0.43% | +3.91% | +6.86% | +26.77% | — |
| 2026-08-06 | 4.29 | $366.12 | +0.93% | +3.10% | +7.28% | +15.30% | +42.19% | — |
| 2026-07-30 | 3.40 | $353.31 | +1.92% | +2.97% | +3.63% | +11.17% | +33.58% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 5.93 | $357.28 | -1.36% | +1.77% | -4.36% | -1.74% | +14.82% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 3.65 | $335.11 | -4.62% | -3.88% | -1.26% | +6.62% | +10.27% | — |
| 2026-06-27 | 4.26 | $320.69 | -2.39% | -1.71% | +1.06% | +0.45% | +10.31% | — |
| 2026-06-11 | 7.48 | $334.80 | +15.65% | +1.00% | +0.62% | -6.01% | -3.79% | +49.36% |
| 2026-06-09 | 3.86 | $314.57 | -0.97% | +23.09% | +10.57% | +0.94% | +1.60% | +71.47% |
| 2026-06-04 | 11.67 | $363.73 | +2.66% | -18.65% | -7.95% | -7.38% | -10.89% | +38.80% |
| 2026-05-30 | 12.08 | $396.79 | -6.69% | -13.33% | -22.40% | -10.89% | -21.83% | +14.62% |
| 2026-05-28 | 3.40 | $392.74 | -9.86% | -5.72% | -7.39% | -14.75% | -18.35% | +11.82% |
| 2026-05-20 | 4.08 | $398.18 | +1.46% | -4.44% | -4.61% | -18.20% | -19.87% | +4.31% |
| 2026-05-05 | 3.73 | $406.36 | +1.39% | -1.65% | +2.44% | -5.86% | -10.49% | -10.39% |
| 2026-04-27 | 5.06 | $391.42 | -2.92% | -3.90% | +0.08% | +4.60% | -2.96% | -6.97% |
| 2026-04-24 | 3.39 | $379.26 | -2.91% | +3.21% | +0.06% | +5.37% | +1.86% | -7.08% |
| 2026-04-22 | 9.12 | $385.59 | -4.86% | -4.51% | -2.01% | +6.85% | +1.76% | -12.53% |
| 2026-04-14 | 3.34 | $346.57 | -0.51% | -0.96% | +1.96% | +9.64% | +14.46% | -6.57% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-09: +47.97%
- 2026-01-06: +43.90%
- 2026-08-25: +17.69%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-20: -26.69%
- 2026-05-30: -22.40%
- 2025-12-01: -16.99%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.