Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Rise
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Monero
62 historical signal(s) detected for Monero; 36 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (26 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | 2025-09-20 | $284.2339 | $294.2582 | +3.53% | 103.53 |
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $312.6627 | $333.7949 | +6.76% | 110.52 |
| 2025-10-09 | 2025-10-16 | $333.7949 | $318.3853 | -4.62% | 105.42 |
| 2025-10-19 | 2025-10-26 | $308.2084 | $333.6690 | +8.26% | 114.13 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-11-03 | $347.1826 | $347.1538 | -0.01% | 114.12 |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-11-14 | $359.2601 | $385.9587 | +7.43% | 122.60 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-11-23 | $422.0421 | $369.5156 | -12.45% | 107.34 |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-11-30 | $369.5156 | $412.6718 | +11.68% | 119.88 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-08 | $436.9172 | $362.6838 | -16.99% | 99.51 |
| 2025-12-09 | 2025-12-16 | $374.0360 | $409.6561 | +9.52% | 108.99 |
| 2025-12-17 | 2025-12-24 | $428.7859 | $448.0822 | +4.50% | 113.89 |
| 2026-01-06 | 2026-01-13 | $436.3768 | $627.9680 | +43.90% | 163.90 |
| 2026-01-20 | 2026-01-27 | $617.2211 | $452.4750 | -26.69% | 120.15 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $317.1561 | $347.0137 | +9.41% | 131.46 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $347.0137 | $322.0837 | -7.18% | 122.02 |
| 2026-02-25 | 2026-03-04 | $318.5645 | $337.8140 | +6.04% | 129.39 |
| 2026-03-06 | 2026-03-13 | $358.0899 | $340.8073 | -4.83% | 123.15 |
| 2026-03-14 | 2026-03-21 | $352.3557 | $348.2806 | -1.16% | 121.72 |
| 2026-03-21 | 2026-03-28 | $348.2806 | $326.5163 | -6.25% | 114.12 |
| 2026-04-01 | 2026-04-08 | $334.2116 | $343.8464 | +2.88% | 117.41 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $343.8464 | $344.8084 | +0.28% | 117.73 |
| 2026-04-22 | 2026-04-29 | $385.5851 | $377.8493 | -2.01% | 115.37 |
| 2026-05-05 | 2026-05-12 | $406.3586 | $416.2757 | +2.44% | 118.19 |
| 2026-05-20 | 2026-05-27 | $398.1781 | $379.8308 | -4.61% | 112.74 |
| 2026-05-28 | 2026-06-04 | $392.7382 | $363.7265 | -7.39% | 104.41 |
| 2026-06-04 | 2026-06-11 | $363.7265 | $334.8012 | -7.95% | 96.11 |
| 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-18 | $334.8012 | $336.8684 | +0.62% | 96.70 |
| 2026-06-27 | 2026-07-04 | $320.6856 | $324.0991 | +1.06% | 97.73 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $335.1119 | $330.8904 | -1.26% | 96.50 |
| 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-29 | $357.2848 | $341.6993 | -4.36% | 92.29 |
| 2026-07-30 | 2026-08-06 | $353.3091 | $366.1217 | +3.63% | 95.64 |
| 2026-08-06 | 2026-08-13 | $366.1217 | $392.7625 | +7.28% | 102.60 |
| 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-20 | $392.7625 | $422.1466 | +7.48% | 110.27 |
| 2026-08-23 | 2026-08-30 | $432.7643 | $470.5135 | +8.72% | 119.89 |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-07 | $486.8737 | $539.3817 | +10.78% | 132.82 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.