Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
Monero has recorded 5 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.59% and 40.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -32.9% to -26.8% | 1 |
| -26.8% to -20.7% | 0 |
| -20.7% to -14.7% | 0 |
| -14.7% to -8.6% | 0 |
| -8.6% to -2.5% | 1 |
| -2.5% to +3.6% | 0 |
| +3.6% to +9.7% | 2 |
| +9.7% to +15.8% | 0 |
| +15.8% to +21.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 5 | -0.94% | 0.11% | 40.0% | 3.59% | -3.90% |
| 3 days | 5 | 0.74% | -1.66% | 80.0% | 10.64% | -22.25% |
| 7 days | 5 | -3.59% | 0.86% | 40.0% | 14.83% | -11.08% |
| 14 days | 5 | -0.53% | -1.51% | 40.0% | 30.16% | -25.28% |
| 30 days | 5 | 5.23% | -1.50% | 60.0% | 21.86% | -32.91% |
| 90 days | 4 | -1.10% | 9.42% | 50.0% | 69.01% | -29.11% |
Historical occurrences
5 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | -17.60 | $319.06 | -1.34% | +0.39% | -3.59% | -0.53% | +5.23% | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -22.40 | $307.92 | -3.90% | +2.16% | +14.83% | +2.22% | +6.30% | +69.01% |
| 2026-02-03 | -16.91 | $375.97 | -0.94% | -22.25% | -11.08% | -14.11% | -7.98% | +4.20% |
| 2026-01-21 | -25.10 | $498.44 | +3.59% | +0.74% | -8.70% | -25.28% | -32.91% | -29.11% |
| 2025-12-08 | -16.99 | $362.68 | +3.13% | +10.64% | +12.82% | +30.16% | +21.86% | -6.40% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-06: +14.83%
- 2025-12-08: +12.82%
- 2026-06-19: -3.59%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-03: -11.08%
- 2026-01-21: -8.70%
- 2026-06-19: -3.59%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.