Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After a 10% Seven-Day Drop?
Monero has recorded 9 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.59% and 44.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -5.4% to -3.2% | 1 |
| -3.2% to -0.9% | 0 |
| -0.9% to +1.3% | 3 |
| +1.3% to +3.6% | 1 |
| +3.6% to +5.9% | 1 |
| +5.9% to +8.1% | 0 |
| +8.1% to +10.4% | 1 |
| +10.4% to +12.6% | 1 |
| +12.6% to +14.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 9 | -1.54% | -1.71% | 22.2% | 3.59% | -5.58% |
| 3 days | 9 | 2.16% | 4.08% | 88.9% | 14.89% | -5.43% |
| 7 days | 9 | -3.59% | -0.43% | 44.4% | 20.66% | -20.54% |
| 14 days | 9 | 1.13% | -1.16% | 55.6% | 30.16% | -26.20% |
| 30 days | 9 | 5.23% | 3.14% | 55.6% | 40.27% | -32.91% |
| 90 days | 8 | -3.86% | 22.92% | 37.5% | 133.77% | -29.11% |
Historical occurrences
9 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | -17.60 | $319.06 | -1.34% | +0.39% | -3.59% | -0.53% | +5.23% | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -22.40 | $307.92 | -3.90% | +2.16% | +14.83% | +2.22% | +6.30% | +69.01% |
| 2026-06-02 | -10.83 | $343.92 | -5.29% | +8.57% | -8.53% | +1.13% | -10.09% | +41.57% |
| 2026-02-02 | -10.33 | $398.20 | -5.58% | -5.43% | -20.54% | -17.91% | -15.17% | -3.82% |
| 2026-01-29 | -11.05 | $459.27 | -1.54% | +0.21% | -18.00% | -26.20% | -27.10% | -17.73% |
| 2026-01-21 | -25.10 | $498.44 | +3.59% | +0.74% | -8.70% | -25.28% | -32.91% | -29.11% |
| 2025-12-08 | -16.99 | $362.68 | +3.13% | +10.64% | +12.82% | +30.16% | +21.86% | -6.40% |
| 2025-11-21 | -12.10 | $339.24 | -1.02% | +14.89% | +20.66% | +18.71% | +40.27% | -3.89% |
| 2025-10-17 | -11.74 | $301.83 | -3.40% | +4.56% | +7.19% | +7.29% | +39.83% | +133.77% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-21: +20.66%
- 2026-06-06: +14.83%
- 2025-12-08: +12.82%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-02: -20.54%
- 2026-01-29: -18.00%
- 2026-01-21: -8.70%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.