Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
Monero has recorded 23 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.89% and 47.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -38.9% to -23.4% | 1 |
| -23.4% to -7.8% | 6 |
| -7.8% to +7.7% | 6 |
| +7.7% to +23.2% | 1 |
| +23.2% to +38.7% | 1 |
| +38.7% to +54.3% | 2 |
| +54.3% to +69.8% | 0 |
| +69.8% to +85.3% | 0 |
| +85.3% to +100.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 23 | 0.03% | 0.18% | 52.2% | 13.29% | -13.48% |
| 3 days | 23 | -0.34% | -1.20% | 43.5% | 27.29% | -19.08% |
| 7 days | 23 | -0.89% | -2.23% | 47.8% | 14.43% | -29.59% |
| 14 days | 22 | -1.19% | -0.04% | 45.5% | 26.86% | -23.53% |
| 30 days | 19 | -5.18% | -1.73% | 42.1% | 41.87% | -37.53% |
| 90 days | 18 | -6.07% | 6.05% | 38.9% | 100.87% | -38.91% |
Historical occurrences
23 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 2.22 | $520.60 | +6.74% | -0.34% | +0.24% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 2.05 | $486.87 | +6.93% | +1.47% | +10.78% | +6.41% | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | 1.63 | $454.81 | +3.77% | +7.05% | +14.43% | +11.75% | — | — |
| 2026-08-21 | 1.65 | $410.22 | +0.58% | +2.76% | +10.87% | +26.86% | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | 1.55 | $394.46 | +0.63% | -0.43% | +3.91% | +6.86% | +26.77% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 1.64 | $347.82 | -0.69% | -8.27% | -8.71% | -9.38% | -5.18% | +48.95% |
| 2026-06-12 | 1.62 | $387.19 | -8.68% | -11.94% | -17.60% | -20.56% | -16.66% | +32.42% |
| 2026-05-30 | 1.53 | $396.79 | -6.69% | -13.33% | -22.40% | -10.89% | -21.83% | +14.62% |
| 2026-05-12 | 1.58 | $416.28 | -1.19% | -4.92% | -8.10% | -7.34% | -19.57% | -5.24% |
| 2026-05-08 | 1.74 | $399.63 | +0.03% | +2.46% | -0.96% | -1.82% | -25.96% | -8.39% |
| 2026-05-04 | 1.51 | $391.75 | +3.73% | +5.88% | +4.52% | -0.55% | -16.86% | -7.13% |
| 2026-04-28 | 1.59 | $379.99 | -0.56% | -0.13% | +6.94% | +9.55% | +3.36% | -6.90% |
| 2026-04-21 | 1.73 | $353.35 | +9.12% | +7.33% | +7.54% | +15.00% | +14.34% | -4.84% |
| 2026-04-11 | 1.53 | $344.14 | -1.60% | +0.70% | +1.25% | +6.99% | +18.98% | -8.69% |
| 2026-04-09 | 1.54 | $327.30 | +5.90% | +3.47% | +5.36% | +12.08% | +22.13% | +2.39% |
| 2026-03-24 | 1.50 | $347.67 | -3.25% | -7.28% | -7.65% | -6.13% | +5.51% | -7.87% |
| 2026-03-06 | 1.71 | $358.09 | -2.74% | -7.85% | -4.83% | -5.90% | -9.34% | +1.57% |
| 2026-02-01 | 2.00 | $460.24 | -13.48% | -19.08% | -29.59% | -23.53% | -26.51% | -17.55% |
| 2026-01-12 | 2.42 | $554.30 | +13.29% | +27.29% | +1.31% | -19.89% | -37.53% | -38.91% |
| 2025-11-16 | 1.52 | $422.04 | -3.80% | -4.42% | -12.45% | -2.22% | -2.93% | -17.78% |
| 2025-11-10 | 2.45 | $417.37 | -7.19% | -7.09% | -2.72% | -6.62% | -6.98% | -22.36% |
| 2025-10-15 | 1.62 | $312.62 | +1.85% | -6.73% | -2.48% | +7.23% | +23.46% | +100.87% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.97 | $294.20 | +1.55% | +5.75% | -0.89% | +11.24% | +41.87% | +53.73% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-28: +14.43%
- 2026-08-21: +10.87%
- 2026-08-31: +10.78%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -29.59%
- 2026-05-30: -22.40%
- 2026-06-12: -17.60%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.