Transparent historical data
What Happens to Litecoin After a 3% One-Day Drop?
Litecoin has recorded 32 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.87% and 31.2% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -19.8% to -16.3% | 3 |
| -16.3% to -12.8% | 2 |
| -12.8% to -9.3% | 2 |
| -9.3% to -5.7% | 3 |
| -5.7% to -2.2% | 5 |
| -2.2% to +1.3% | 7 |
| +1.3% to +4.8% | 7 |
| +4.8% to +8.3% | 1 |
| +8.3% to +11.8% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 32 | -1.01% | -0.61% | 34.4% | 7.90% | -5.32% |
| 3 days | 32 | -0.81% | -0.70% | 34.4% | 9.90% | -11.66% |
| 7 days | 32 | -1.87% | -2.75% | 31.2% | 19.39% | -23.32% |
| 14 days | 32 | -1.72% | -3.06% | 34.4% | 11.85% | -19.80% |
| 30 days | 31 | -1.68% | -6.57% | 35.5% | 13.72% | -32.12% |
| 90 days | 29 | -23.44% | -21.23% | 13.8% | 11.68% | -47.73% |
Historical occurrences
33 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.57 | $51.23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-26 | -3.32 | $49.93 | +1.15% | -1.23% | -0.78% | +8.74% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -3.74 | $46.01 | +0.35% | -1.02% | -3.83% | -1.98% | +9.77% | — |
| 2026-06-24 | -5.34 | $42.12 | -2.49% | -0.61% | -0.53% | +4.23% | +11.41% | — |
| 2026-06-05 | -3.19 | $45.58 | -5.04% | -6.08% | -6.91% | -3.91% | -1.68% | +8.95% |
| 2026-06-03 | -7.58 | $46.87 | +0.45% | -7.66% | -8.27% | -2.61% | -7.23% | +3.52% |
| 2026-05-12 | -3.12 | $58.49 | -0.78% | -0.54% | -7.11% | -9.96% | -28.68% | -22.37% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.66 | $54.55 | -1.63% | -2.28% | -4.08% | -0.04% | +2.77% | -24.70% |
| 2026-03-22 | -3.23 | $54.37 | -1.37% | +3.78% | -0.96% | -1.45% | +1.23% | -19.04% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.62 | $56.04 | -0.80% | -2.98% | +1.03% | -3.95% | +0.73% | -18.54% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.04 | $53.83 | -0.40% | -0.13% | +2.68% | +4.38% | +0.98% | -15.32% |
| 2026-02-23 | -5.79 | $51.63 | -0.24% | +9.90% | +3.15% | +1.99% | +9.28% | +3.51% |
| 2026-02-06 | -13.62 | $50.80 | +7.90% | +7.32% | +4.59% | +3.73% | +5.53% | +11.68% |
| 2026-02-01 | -9.10 | $59.43 | -1.51% | -0.16% | -7.15% | -5.84% | -8.17% | -6.80% |
| 2026-01-30 | -4.51 | $66.26 | -1.32% | -11.66% | -23.32% | -19.80% | -17.72% | -16.53% |
| 2026-01-21 | -5.02 | $67.23 | +1.98% | +1.20% | +4.06% | -11.75% | -21.62% | -18.14% |
| 2026-01-19 | -5.57 | $70.68 | +0.14% | -3.00% | -4.93% | -17.20% | -23.71% | -21.25% |
| 2026-01-16 | -5.66 | $72.30 | +3.98% | -2.24% | -5.67% | -8.36% | -22.61% | -23.63% |
| 2026-01-12 | -3.07 | $78.60 | -3.34% | -2.49% | -10.07% | -14.50% | -32.12% | -29.95% |
| 2025-12-18 | -3.92 | $75.95 | -2.23% | +2.46% | -0.33% | +0.98% | -1.01% | -23.44% |
| 2025-12-15 | -3.04 | $79.00 | -1.84% | -3.86% | -2.75% | -0.48% | -0.87% | -30.43% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.83 | $80.37 | +1.66% | +4.40% | +1.93% | -3.59% | +2.57% | -30.93% |
| 2025-12-02 | -6.20 | $77.55 | +6.83% | +7.76% | +8.19% | -0.01% | -1.11% | -31.32% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.99 | $87.23 | -5.32% | -4.83% | -0.72% | -4.20% | -10.80% | -38.89% |
| 2025-11-17 | -5.67 | $95.78 | -4.81% | -3.12% | -13.32% | -13.68% | -17.47% | -41.58% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +19.39%
- 2025-12-02: +8.19%
- 2026-02-06: +4.59%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -23.32%
- 2025-11-17: -13.32%
- 2025-11-11: -12.59%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.