Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Litecoin
33 historical signal(s) detected for Litecoin; 22 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (11 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-22 | $115.1570 | $114.0255 | -0.98% | 99.02 |
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $105.7743 | $106.8529 | +1.02% | 100.03 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $96.8838 | $90.1182 | -6.98% | 93.04 |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-11-07 | $93.2848 | $86.9684 | -6.77% | 86.74 |
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-11-18 | $104.3072 | $91.1723 | -12.59% | 75.82 |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-28 | $87.2307 | $86.6029 | -0.72% | 75.27 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $77.5498 | $83.9031 | +8.19% | 81.44 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $78.9962 | $76.8239 | -2.75% | 79.20 |
| 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-19 | $78.5970 | $70.6836 | -10.07% | 71.23 |
| 2026-01-19 | 2026-01-26 | $70.6836 | $67.1973 | -4.93% | 67.71 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $66.2551 | $50.8023 | -23.32% | 51.92 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $50.8023 | $53.1345 | +4.59% | 54.30 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $51.6321 | $53.2577 | +3.15% | 56.01 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $53.8254 | $55.2653 | +2.68% | 57.51 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $56.0397 | $56.6182 | +1.03% | 58.11 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $54.5462 | $52.3201 | -4.08% | 55.73 |
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-19 | $58.4946 | $54.3328 | -7.11% | 51.77 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $46.8740 | $42.9952 | -8.27% | 47.49 |
| 2026-06-24 | 2026-07-01 | $42.1222 | $41.8996 | -0.53% | 47.23 |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-04 | $46.0074 | $44.2476 | -3.83% | 45.43 |
| 2026-08-26 | 2026-09-02 | $49.9291 | $49.5400 | -0.78% | 45.07 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Litecoin · Read the full methodology