Transparent historical data
What Happens to LEO Token When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
LEO Token has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.02% and 28.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -8.9% to -7.6% | 2 |
| -7.6% to -6.3% | 0 |
| -6.3% to -5.0% | 0 |
| -5.0% to -3.7% | 0 |
| -3.7% to -2.4% | 1 |
| -2.4% to -1.1% | 2 |
| -1.1% to +0.2% | 5 |
| +0.2% to +1.5% | 2 |
| +1.5% to +2.8% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | 0.03% | 0.10% | 57.1% | 1.81% | -1.74% |
| 3 days | 14 | -0.18% | -1.37% | 42.9% | 2.79% | -8.89% |
| 7 days | 14 | -1.02% | -3.26% | 28.6% | 6.80% | -25.32% |
| 14 days | 14 | -3.15% | -3.69% | 21.4% | 6.17% | -15.80% |
| 30 days | 14 | -4.57% | -3.30% | 14.3% | 5.50% | -8.41% |
| 90 days | 11 | -4.87% | -1.13% | 27.3% | 16.94% | -11.82% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $9.73 | +0.47% | +0.30% | -0.82% | -3.34% | -4.96% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $9.78 | -0.21% | +0.01% | -0.29% | -2.95% | -1.04% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $9.54 | +1.81% | +2.79% | +2.07% | +2.23% | -4.86% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $10.10 | -0.78% | -0.97% | -0.32% | -6.40% | -5.19% | -7.71% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $10.11 | -1.74% | -2.36% | -1.23% | -0.88% | -4.24% | -7.71% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $9.13 | +0.18% | -8.03% | -25.32% | -8.86% | -2.75% | +12.26% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $8.74 | +1.10% | +1.73% | +3.85% | +1.30% | -1.28% | +16.94% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $9.09 | +0.04% | -0.20% | -2.12% | -2.13% | -8.41% | +10.42% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $9.50 | -0.04% | -2.80% | -16.04% | -10.56% | -4.54% | -4.87% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $9.47 | +1.71% | +1.04% | +0.29% | -15.80% | -5.13% | -4.74% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $9.52 | +0.02% | -8.89% | -3.53% | -3.81% | +0.11% | -11.82% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $8.97 | -0.06% | -0.16% | +6.80% | +6.17% | +5.50% | -0.05% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $9.61 | -1.37% | -1.69% | -6.69% | -0.22% | -4.77% | -9.47% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $9.63 | +0.33% | +0.05% | -2.34% | -6.47% | -4.60% | -5.62% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-10-22: +6.80%
- 2026-01-21: +3.85%
- 2026-07-14: +2.07%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -25.32%
- 2025-12-13: -16.04%
- 2025-10-17: -6.69%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.