Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for LEO Token
14 historical signal(s) detected for LEO Token; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $9.6274 | $9.4018 | -2.34% | 97.66 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $8.9694 | $9.5789 | +6.80% | 104.29 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $9.5212 | $9.1848 | -3.53% | 100.61 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $9.4719 | $9.4992 | +0.29% | 100.90 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $9.4992 | $7.9756 | -16.04% | 84.71 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $9.0863 | $8.8935 | -2.12% | 82.92 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $8.7418 | $9.0787 | +3.85% | 86.11 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $9.1287 | $6.8176 | -25.32% | 64.31 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $10.1061 | $9.9820 | -1.23% | 63.52 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $9.5402 | $9.7375 | +2.07% | 64.83 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $9.7834 | $9.7555 | -0.29% | 64.65 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for LEO Token · Read the full methodology