Transparent historical data
What Happens to LEO Token When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
LEO Token has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.60% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -11.3% to -8.9% | 2 |
| -8.9% to -6.5% | 3 |
| -6.5% to -4.0% | 0 |
| -4.0% to -1.6% | 1 |
| -1.6% to +0.8% | 1 |
| +0.8% to +3.2% | 1 |
| +3.2% to +5.7% | 1 |
| +5.7% to +8.1% | 2 |
| +8.1% to +10.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | 0.18% | 0.15% | 58.3% | 1.94% | -2.12% |
| 3 days | 12 | 0.06% | -2.69% | 58.3% | 3.07% | -21.62% |
| 7 days | 12 | -0.60% | -2.33% | 50.0% | 13.81% | -25.32% |
| 14 days | 12 | -1.79% | -1.40% | 50.0% | 10.54% | -11.33% |
| 30 days | 12 | -1.70% | 0.01% | 41.7% | 7.12% | -9.44% |
| 90 days | 11 | 2.66% | 1.64% | 54.5% | 17.18% | -25.75% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $9.36 | +1.31% | +0.76% | +3.79% | +3.82% | +4.24% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $10.07 | -0.67% | -5.07% | -5.98% | -3.77% | -9.44% | -5.00% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $9.28 | -2.12% | +0.09% | +2.57% | +10.54% | +7.12% | +4.30% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $9.13 | +0.18% | -8.03% | -25.32% | -8.86% | -2.75% | +12.26% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $8.91 | +1.94% | +3.07% | -5.80% | -6.62% | -3.94% | +14.19% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $8.84 | -0.54% | +1.45% | +3.94% | +0.18% | -1.88% | +17.18% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $9.61 | -0.19% | -3.83% | -4.40% | -9.42% | -4.81% | +2.66% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $8.42 | +0.85% | +0.63% | +13.81% | +7.78% | +6.43% | +10.98% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $9.22 | +0.18% | -21.62% | -12.08% | -8.02% | -1.53% | -1.88% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $9.63 | +1.19% | -0.04% | -1.44% | -11.33% | -3.54% | -6.37% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $9.13 | +0.51% | +0.29% | +2.68% | +6.21% | +4.07% | -4.55% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $9.18 | -0.88% | +0.04% | +0.23% | +2.63% | +6.18% | -25.75% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-26: +13.81%
- 2026-01-22: +3.94%
- 2026-07-08: +3.79%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -25.32%
- 2025-12-15: -12.08%
- 2026-06-03: -5.98%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.