Transparent historical data
What Happens to LEO Token When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
LEO Token has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.67% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -25.3% to -20.1% | 1 |
| -20.1% to -14.8% | 0 |
| -14.8% to -9.5% | 1 |
| -9.5% to -4.3% | 1 |
| -4.3% to +1.0% | 1 |
| +1.0% to +6.3% | 1 |
| +6.3% to +11.5% | 0 |
| +11.5% to +16.8% | 0 |
| +16.8% to +22.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $10.07 | -0.67% | -5.07% | -5.98% | -3.77% | -9.44% | -5.00% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $6.82 | +15.96% | +22.08% | +22.04% | +26.58% | +31.73% | +50.01% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $8.78 | -4.35% | +0.88% | -11.30% | -2.54% | +2.90% | +16.54% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $9.13 | +0.18% | -8.03% | -25.32% | -8.86% | -2.75% | +12.26% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $9.46 | -0.43% | +0.25% | +3.48% | +2.60% | -9.72% | -10.06% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $9.61 | +0.18% | +0.61% | -1.35% | -6.82% | -4.45% | -5.52% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +22.04%
- 2025-11-21: +3.48%
- 2025-10-11: -1.35%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -25.32%
- 2026-02-01: -11.30%
- 2026-06-03: -5.98%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.