Transparent historical data
What Happens to LEO Token When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
LEO Token has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.07% and 52.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -4.4% to -3.6% | 2 |
| -3.6% to -2.8% | 0 |
| -2.8% to -2.0% | 0 |
| -2.0% to -1.2% | 1 |
| -1.2% to -0.4% | 5 |
| -0.4% to +0.4% | 6 |
| +0.4% to +1.2% | 2 |
| +1.2% to +2.0% | 2 |
| +2.0% to +2.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -0.02% | -0.26% | 47.4% | 2.74% | -4.35% |
| 3 days | 19 | 0.61% | -0.90% | 57.9% | 6.60% | -10.73% |
| 7 days | 19 | 0.07% | -1.17% | 52.6% | 10.23% | -25.32% |
| 14 days | 19 | -0.37% | -0.31% | 47.4% | 15.28% | -15.80% |
| 30 days | 18 | -0.72% | 0.40% | 44.4% | 14.52% | -9.72% |
| 90 days | 18 | -3.10% | 1.28% | 38.9% | 23.45% | -14.35% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $8.83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $9.42 | +2.74% | +1.49% | -2.52% | -2.88% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $9.56 | -1.06% | -1.46% | +0.48% | -0.37% | -3.02% | -2.13% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $10.02 | +0.50% | -0.75% | -5.99% | -2.64% | -7.81% | -4.07% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $10.02 | -0.22% | -2.65% | -0.52% | +4.10% | -0.16% | -4.56% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $9.52 | -0.47% | +1.10% | +7.77% | +5.42% | +6.94% | -0.81% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $9.11 | +1.90% | +1.28% | +2.68% | +15.28% | +10.21% | +6.40% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $9.02 | -0.44% | +1.49% | +0.07% | +0.68% | +12.48% | +10.21% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $8.18 | -1.87% | +6.60% | +10.23% | +9.62% | +14.52% | +23.45% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $8.86 | -0.02% | -10.73% | -1.61% | -2.22% | +1.89% | +13.57% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $8.78 | -4.35% | +0.88% | -11.30% | -2.54% | +2.90% | +16.54% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $9.13 | +0.18% | -8.03% | -25.32% | -8.86% | -2.75% | +12.26% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $8.74 | +1.10% | +1.73% | +3.85% | +1.30% | -1.28% | +16.94% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $9.47 | +1.71% | +1.04% | +0.29% | -15.80% | -5.13% | -4.74% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $9.87 | -3.92% | -1.65% | -3.05% | -6.47% | -2.68% | -8.63% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $9.46 | -0.43% | +0.25% | +3.48% | +2.60% | -9.72% | -10.06% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $9.20 | -0.54% | -0.48% | +2.39% | +6.00% | +0.14% | -9.59% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $9.52 | +0.02% | -8.89% | -3.53% | -3.81% | +0.11% | -11.82% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $9.61 | +0.18% | +0.61% | -1.35% | -6.82% | -4.45% | -5.52% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $9.48 | +0.09% | +1.03% | +1.71% | +1.61% | -5.04% | -14.35% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-23: +10.23%
- 2026-03-27: +7.77%
- 2026-01-21: +3.85%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -25.32%
- 2026-02-01: -11.30%
- 2026-06-02: -5.99%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.