Transparent historical data
What Happens to Hyperliquid When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Hyperliquid dataset.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -5.9% to -2.7% | 6 |
| -2.7% to +0.5% | 1 |
| +0.5% to +3.7% | 2 |
| +3.7% to +6.9% | 1 |
| +6.9% to +10.0% | 2 |
| +10.0% to +13.2% | 1 |
| +13.2% to +16.4% | 0 |
| +16.4% to +19.6% | 0 |
| +19.6% to +22.8% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $53.96 | +1.98% | +4.06% | +2.01% | +10.11% | +51.80% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $55.84 | -5.94% | -5.89% | +0.55% | +2.87% | +49.34% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $63.44 | +3.22% | -4.34% | -1.61% | -11.66% | -11.67% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $58.67 | +7.03% | +1.40% | +16.33% | -3.53% | +12.83% | +28.69% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $47.71 | +0.75% | +22.80% | +28.12% | +54.05% | +49.05% | +19.71% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $30.74 | -0.53% | -0.36% | +7.38% | +1.34% | +1.74% | +29.96% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $21.09 | +2.51% | +7.66% | +45.94% | +54.19% | +37.86% | +93.05% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $25.11 | -3.81% | -5.10% | +0.04% | -9.56% | +29.35% | +57.33% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $28.61 | +3.61% | -3.60% | -13.05% | -9.87% | -13.81% | +30.21% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $30.98 | -0.12% | -4.88% | -7.67% | -19.72% | -13.81% | -1.25% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $40.11 | -2.43% | -3.90% | +3.56% | -2.70% | -13.50% | -23.64% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $35.38 | +2.52% | +11.16% | +35.03% | +10.63% | +6.32% | -32.80% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $36.77 | -3.53% | +1.75% | +9.23% | +23.58% | +4.87% | -29.27% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $36.90 | +7.73% | +7.07% | -0.07% | +19.99% | +12.58% | -31.95% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-21: +45.94%
- 2025-10-22: +35.03%
- 2026-05-19: +28.12%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-12-13: -13.05%
- 2025-12-06: -7.67%
- 2026-07-14: -1.61%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.