Transparent historical data
What Happens to Hyperliquid After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Hyperliquid has recorded 46 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.02% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -27.4% to -18.0% | 7 |
| -18.0% to -8.5% | 8 |
| -8.5% to +0.9% | 15 |
| +0.9% to +10.4% | 5 |
| +10.4% to +19.8% | 4 |
| +19.8% to +29.3% | 2 |
| +29.3% to +38.7% | 1 |
| +38.7% to +48.2% | 2 |
| +48.2% to +57.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 46 | 0.69% | 1.00% | 58.7% | 23.15% | -13.61% |
| 3 days | 46 | 0.33% | 1.88% | 56.5% | 22.98% | -24.03% |
| 7 days | 46 | -1.02% | 0.81% | 50.0% | 37.43% | -28.51% |
| 14 days | 45 | -4.33% | 0.54% | 33.3% | 57.65% | -27.42% |
| 30 days | 42 | -0.93% | -0.32% | 50.0% | 60.99% | -38.58% |
| 90 days | 40 | 25.86% | 23.36% | 72.5% | 105.94% | -53.63% |
Historical occurrences
46 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 6.76 | $87.45 | -3.46% | +0.57% | -10.17% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | 5.14 | $84.16 | -1.66% | +3.91% | +1.17% | -4.54% | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | 5.28 | $79.49 | +3.46% | +0.19% | +4.91% | +7.45% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 18.95 | $69.60 | +5.82% | +14.20% | +18.24% | +17.69% | — | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 7.24 | $66.87 | +5.66% | +6.59% | +0.32% | -9.24% | -22.00% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 8.75 | $66.80 | -2.74% | +0.11% | +5.64% | -5.03% | -19.34% | — |
| 2026-06-17 | 9.97 | $73.56 | -3.32% | -4.46% | -15.55% | -11.68% | -17.50% | +9.22% |
| 2026-06-15 | 5.27 | $63.89 | +4.69% | +11.31% | +4.81% | -3.86% | +2.50% | +24.67% |
| 2026-06-12 | 10.60 | $58.91 | +0.65% | +8.45% | +15.89% | +8.77% | +13.42% | +41.86% |
| 2026-06-08 | 5.33 | $59.61 | +6.99% | -10.66% | +7.17% | +12.32% | +16.07% | +43.27% |
| 2026-06-04 | 6.84 | $74.50 | -13.61% | -24.03% | -28.51% | -4.55% | -5.17% | +11.08% |
| 2026-05-31 | 5.96 | $68.25 | +5.54% | +2.17% | -17.07% | -11.08% | -2.13% | +18.56% |
| 2026-05-29 | 6.49 | $61.57 | +4.61% | +16.99% | +4.53% | -4.33% | +0.08% | +33.66% |
| 2026-05-24 | 7.29 | $58.67 | +7.03% | +1.40% | +16.33% | -3.53% | +12.83% | +28.69% |
| 2026-05-21 | 13.93 | $54.76 | +6.99% | +7.13% | +5.59% | +36.05% | +28.33% | +6.85% |
| 2026-05-18 | 9.31 | $45.69 | +4.42% | +19.85% | +37.43% | +57.65% | +60.99% | +24.46% |
| 2026-05-15 | 13.77 | $44.16 | +0.01% | +3.47% | +32.68% | +39.44% | +37.43% | +26.89% |
| 2026-04-14 | 8.68 | $44.41 | -1.84% | -1.22% | -8.31% | -6.22% | -12.60% | +51.54% |
| 2026-04-11 | 5.30 | $41.60 | +1.72% | +6.77% | +7.27% | -1.09% | +3.30% | +61.27% |
| 2026-04-08 | 6.78 | $38.76 | -0.11% | +7.33% | +12.48% | +2.61% | +9.71% | +82.08% |
| 2026-03-25 | 7.93 | $40.34 | -0.03% | -4.27% | -9.53% | -3.92% | +2.39% | +64.10% |
| 2026-03-17 | 8.83 | $40.77 | +1.15% | -3.59% | -8.33% | -9.66% | +9.60% | +56.70% |
| 2026-03-10 | 12.53 | $34.66 | +0.09% | +7.47% | +17.63% | +7.83% | +11.70% | +72.00% |
| 2026-03-01 | 14.14 | $31.28 | +1.09% | +0.18% | -2.84% | +21.01% | +17.76% | +105.94% |
| 2026-02-13 | 5.78 | $31.15 | +1.48% | -1.28% | -6.66% | -9.46% | +21.50% | +24.60% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-18: +37.43%
- 2026-01-24: +34.65%
- 2026-01-27: +33.04%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-04: -28.51%
- 2025-09-18: -21.11%
- 2026-01-14: -18.38%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.