Transparent historical data
What Happens to Hyperliquid After a 3% One-Day Rise?
Hyperliquid has recorded 65 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.38% and 52.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -53.6% to -34.4% | 8 |
| -34.4% to -15.2% | 5 |
| -15.2% to +4.0% | 2 |
| +4.0% to +23.2% | 4 |
| +23.2% to +42.4% | 14 |
| +42.4% to +61.6% | 11 |
| +61.6% to +80.8% | 4 |
| +80.8% to +100.0% | 3 |
| +100.0% to +119.2% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 66 | 0.32% | 0.50% | 54.5% | 23.15% | -13.61% |
| 3 days | 65 | 0.18% | 1.19% | 53.8% | 23.96% | -24.03% |
| 7 days | 65 | 0.38% | 1.53% | 52.3% | 37.43% | -28.51% |
| 14 days | 64 | -3.07% | 1.45% | 45.3% | 57.65% | -29.01% |
| 30 days | 58 | 2.90% | 3.95% | 56.9% | 75.10% | -38.58% |
| 90 days | 53 | 28.62% | 25.13% | 71.7% | 119.17% | -53.63% |
Historical occurrences
66 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 3.85 | $80.34 | -4.26% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 6.76 | $87.45 | -3.46% | +0.57% | -10.17% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | 5.14 | $84.16 | -1.66% | +3.91% | +1.17% | -4.54% | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | 3.06 | $83.39 | -4.01% | -0.76% | +2.42% | -4.49% | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | 3.34 | $82.30 | +2.89% | +1.33% | -0.46% | +1.54% | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | 5.28 | $79.49 | +3.46% | +0.19% | +4.91% | +7.45% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 18.95 | $69.60 | +5.82% | +14.20% | +18.24% | +17.69% | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 | 4.03 | $59.42 | -1.52% | +23.96% | +32.75% | +41.63% | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | 3.43 | $56.92 | -1.35% | -3.20% | -1.56% | +22.28% | +48.33% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 3.65 | $55.84 | -5.94% | -5.89% | +0.55% | +2.87% | +49.34% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 3.22 | $65.48 | +2.06% | -8.77% | -7.10% | -15.80% | -12.27% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 7.24 | $66.87 | +5.66% | +6.59% | +0.32% | -9.24% | -22.00% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 8.75 | $66.80 | -2.74% | +0.11% | +5.64% | -5.03% | -19.34% | — |
| 2026-06-15 | 5.27 | $63.89 | +4.69% | +11.31% | +4.81% | -3.86% | +2.50% | +24.67% |
| 2026-06-12 | 10.60 | $58.91 | +0.65% | +8.45% | +15.89% | +8.77% | +13.42% | +41.86% |
| 2026-06-08 | 5.33 | $59.61 | +6.99% | -10.66% | +7.17% | +12.32% | +16.07% | +43.27% |
| 2026-06-04 | 6.84 | $74.50 | -13.61% | -24.03% | -28.51% | -4.55% | -5.17% | +11.08% |
| 2026-05-29 | 6.49 | $61.57 | +4.61% | +16.99% | +4.53% | -4.33% | +0.08% | +33.66% |
| 2026-05-24 | 7.29 | $58.67 | +7.03% | +1.40% | +16.33% | -3.53% | +12.83% | +28.69% |
| 2026-05-21 | 13.93 | $54.76 | +6.99% | +7.13% | +5.59% | +36.05% | +28.33% | +6.85% |
| 2026-05-18 | 9.31 | $45.69 | +4.42% | +19.85% | +37.43% | +57.65% | +60.99% | +24.46% |
| 2026-05-15 | 13.77 | $44.16 | +0.01% | +3.47% | +32.68% | +39.44% | +37.43% | +26.89% |
| 2026-05-06 | 4.62 | $43.72 | -1.41% | -1.08% | -7.97% | +9.93% | +47.21% | +23.42% |
| 2026-05-02 | 3.64 | $41.14 | +0.30% | +1.59% | +5.14% | +7.36% | +75.10% | +35.75% |
| 2026-04-23 | 3.50 | $41.16 | +0.35% | +0.82% | -2.94% | +4.74% | +32.86% | +47.80% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-18: +37.43%
- 2026-01-24: +34.65%
- 2026-01-27: +33.04%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-04: -28.51%
- 2025-09-18: -21.11%
- 2025-12-14: -19.07%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.