Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After Negative Funding?
Ethereum has recorded 49 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.15% and 49.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -41.3% to -32.8% | 7 |
| -32.8% to -24.3% | 13 |
| -24.3% to -15.8% | 12 |
| -15.8% to -7.3% | 2 |
| -7.3% to +1.2% | 0 |
| +1.2% to +9.7% | 1 |
| +9.7% to +18.2% | 0 |
| +18.2% to +26.6% | 0 |
| +26.6% to +35.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 52 | -0.74% | -1.19% | 32.7% | 6.43% | -10.55% |
| 3 days | 51 | -0.53% | -1.03% | 47.1% | 9.28% | -18.63% |
| 7 days | 49 | -0.15% | -0.58% | 49.0% | 28.84% | -28.84% |
| 14 days | 48 | -1.00% | -1.43% | 41.7% | 33.28% | -35.43% |
| 30 days | 47 | 0.61% | 0.57% | 51.1% | 34.01% | -39.16% |
| 90 days | 36 | -26.42% | -23.82% | 5.6% | 35.15% | -41.32% |
Historical occurrences
52 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | -0.01 | $2514.76 | -4.66% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-13 | -0.00 | $2525.27 | -1.92% | -5.06% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | -0.00 | $2467.53 | -1.22% | +2.34% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | -0.00 | $2489.40 | -0.17% | -2.08% | +1.02% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | -0.00 | $2511.46 | -2.75% | -3.79% | -0.15% | -2.94% | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | -0.00 | $1880.96 | -0.35% | +1.88% | +28.84% | +30.63% | +33.70% | — |
| 2026-08-14 | -0.00 | $1884.39 | -0.22% | -0.53% | +23.46% | +33.28% | +34.01% | — |
| 2026-08-07 | -0.00 | $1902.16 | +0.57% | +0.36% | -0.93% | +22.31% | +30.38% | — |
| 2026-08-03 | -0.00 | $1882.93 | -1.30% | +1.30% | +1.38% | -0.45% | +28.40% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | -0.00 | $1917.57 | -2.97% | -1.81% | -0.80% | -1.73% | +28.14% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -0.00 | $1890.45 | +1.59% | +1.43% | -1.69% | -1.01% | +32.58% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | -0.00 | $1874.46 | +4.18% | +2.46% | -1.65% | +2.19% | +32.41% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | -0.00 | $1933.41 | -2.89% | -3.05% | -1.28% | -1.34% | +30.08% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | -0.00 | $1862.32 | +0.46% | +3.56% | +0.65% | -1.01% | +2.68% | — |
| 2026-06-25 | -0.01 | $1620.64 | -3.37% | -3.01% | -0.76% | +7.50% | +14.80% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | -0.00 | $1725.16 | -3.45% | -9.23% | -6.69% | +4.25% | +12.07% | — |
| 2026-06-05 | -0.00 | $1769.03 | -10.55% | -4.59% | -5.49% | -3.33% | +0.61% | +35.15% |
| 2026-05-15 | -0.00 | $2282.60 | -2.57% | -6.65% | -6.59% | -12.02% | -26.39% | -17.74% |
| 2026-04-30 | -0.01 | $2253.62 | +0.15% | +3.05% | +4.32% | +0.22% | -10.70% | -14.78% |
| 2026-04-18 | -0.00 | $2421.29 | -2.88% | -4.40% | -4.36% | -5.19% | -12.00% | -23.06% |
| 2026-04-16 | -0.00 | $2360.58 | -0.49% | -0.39% | +0.64% | -4.53% | -5.79% | -19.92% |
| 2026-04-09 | -0.00 | $2179.79 | -0.08% | +4.74% | +8.29% | +8.99% | +5.86% | -18.74% |
| 2026-04-07 | -0.00 | $2100.81 | +6.43% | +3.67% | +13.01% | +10.18% | +11.91% | -15.07% |
| 2026-03-22 | -0.00 | $2066.16 | -0.51% | +4.37% | -3.20% | -0.68% | +12.03% | -17.29% |
| 2026-03-17 | -0.00 | $2343.53 | -0.96% | -8.71% | -8.15% | -13.63% | +0.73% | -26.37% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-16: +28.84%
- 2026-08-14: +23.46%
- 2026-03-11: +14.04%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-29: -28.84%
- 2026-01-26: -19.50%
- 2025-10-29: -17.43%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is below 0%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.