Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After Negative Funding
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after negative funding, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Ethereum
52 historical signal(s) detected for Ethereum; 29 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (23 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-26 | $4593.8076 | $3896.0630 | -15.19% | 84.81 |
| 2025-09-27 | 2025-10-04 | $4028.9085 | $4514.1486 | +12.04% | 95.03 |
| 2025-10-09 | 2025-10-16 | $4526.0621 | $3991.5442 | -11.81% | 83.80 |
| 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-23 | $3991.5442 | $3805.8819 | -4.65% | 79.91 |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-05 | $3978.8120 | $3285.2318 | -17.43% | 65.98 |
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-11-18 | $3566.0499 | $3026.2183 | -15.14% | 55.99 |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-11-30 | $2768.1537 | $2989.6498 | +8.00% | 60.47 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-08 | $2990.7974 | $3060.9948 | +2.35% | 61.89 |
| 2025-12-12 | 2025-12-19 | $3238.4136 | $2826.6732 | -12.71% | 54.02 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-29 | $3004.2205 | $2948.8318 | -1.84% | 53.02 |
| 2025-12-30 | 2026-01-06 | $2934.3563 | $3227.3933 | +9.99% | 58.32 |
| 2026-01-19 | 2026-01-26 | $3277.7686 | $2812.9354 | -14.18% | 50.05 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $2812.9354 | $2264.3454 | -19.50% | 40.29 |
| 2026-02-22 | 2026-03-01 | $1986.9517 | $1966.7219 | -1.02% | 39.88 |
| 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-18 | $2035.1742 | $2320.9509 | +14.04% | 45.48 |
| 2026-03-22 | 2026-03-29 | $2066.1562 | $2000.0501 | -3.20% | 44.02 |
| 2026-04-07 | 2026-04-14 | $2100.8061 | $2374.0162 | +13.01% | 49.75 |
| 2026-04-16 | 2026-04-23 | $2360.5761 | $2375.7145 | +0.64% | 50.07 |
| 2026-04-30 | 2026-05-07 | $2253.6200 | $2351.0137 | +4.32% | 52.23 |
| 2026-05-15 | 2026-05-22 | $2282.5957 | $2132.1444 | -6.59% | 48.79 |
| 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-12 | $1769.0317 | $1671.8690 | -5.49% | 46.11 |
| 2026-06-23 | 2026-06-30 | $1725.1620 | $1609.7512 | -6.69% | 43.02 |
| 2026-07-19 | 2026-07-26 | $1862.3223 | $1874.4573 | +0.65% | 43.30 |
| 2026-07-26 | 2026-08-02 | $1874.4573 | $1843.4436 | -1.65% | 42.59 |
| 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-10 | $1882.9306 | $1908.9407 | +1.38% | 43.18 |
| 2026-08-14 | 2026-08-21 | $1884.3942 | $2326.5282 | +23.46% | 53.31 |
| 2026-08-28 | 2026-09-04 | $2511.4612 | $2507.6483 | -0.15% | 53.22 |
| 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-15 | $2489.3968 | $2514.7596 | +1.02% | 53.77 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Ethereum · Read the full methodology