Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After Funding Rises to +0.01%?
Ethereum has recorded 30 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.61% and 43.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -11.7% to -6.9% | 3 |
| -6.9% to -2.2% | 5 |
| -2.2% to +2.6% | 15 |
| +2.6% to +7.4% | 3 |
| +7.4% to +12.1% | 3 |
| +12.1% to +16.9% | 0 |
| +16.9% to +21.7% | 0 |
| +21.7% to +26.5% | 0 |
| +26.5% to +31.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 30 | 0.08% | 0.33% | 53.3% | 17.50% | -7.25% |
| 3 days | 30 | 0.08% | 1.08% | 53.3% | 31.23% | -11.71% |
| 7 days | 30 | -0.61% | -0.75% | 43.3% | 27.43% | -16.52% |
| 14 days | 30 | -4.25% | -1.95% | 33.3% | 29.86% | -18.93% |
| 30 days | 28 | -6.45% | -7.05% | 32.1% | 29.62% | -41.52% |
| 90 days | 24 | -27.19% | -23.69% | 8.3% | 20.60% | -40.76% |
Historical occurrences
30 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 0.01 | $2442.01 | +2.63% | +0.02% | -1.00% | +1.76% | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 0.01 | $1916.40 | +17.50% | +31.23% | +27.43% | +26.16% | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | 0.01 | $1880.49 | -0.15% | -0.01% | +1.91% | +29.86% | +29.62% | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 0.01 | $1882.93 | -1.30% | +1.30% | +1.38% | -0.45% | +28.40% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 0.01 | $1952.90 | -3.20% | -2.26% | -3.58% | -2.25% | +25.05% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 0.01 | $1698.56 | +3.44% | +5.05% | +2.72% | +9.68% | +8.53% | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 0.01 | $2003.58 | -7.25% | -11.71% | -15.63% | -10.41% | -19.73% | +20.60% |
| 2026-05-19 | 0.01 | $2128.89 | -0.92% | +0.15% | -0.86% | -5.89% | -17.86% | -11.95% |
| 2026-05-10 | 0.01 | $2327.16 | +1.84% | -2.21% | -6.32% | -9.06% | -27.36% | -17.80% |
| 2026-04-22 | 0.01 | $2326.66 | +2.11% | -0.47% | -1.46% | +1.46% | -8.36% | -18.26% |
| 2026-04-14 | 0.01 | $2374.02 | -2.00% | -1.05% | -2.50% | -2.95% | -4.87% | -23.95% |
| 2026-04-08 | 0.01 | $2235.82 | -2.51% | +0.52% | +4.05% | +4.06% | +2.48% | -19.56% |
| 2026-03-16 | 0.01 | $2182.07 | +7.40% | +0.97% | -5.79% | -9.18% | +6.62% | -22.99% |
| 2026-02-07 | 0.01 | $2055.77 | +1.57% | +2.48% | -0.36% | -4.27% | -5.66% | +11.46% |
| 2026-01-14 | 0.01 | $3330.50 | +0.64% | -1.14% | -11.67% | -9.32% | -41.52% | -28.72% |
| 2026-01-12 | 0.01 | $3120.17 | -0.91% | +7.42% | +5.05% | -9.85% | -35.21% | -26.83% |
| 2026-01-10 | 0.01 | $3085.41 | +0.02% | +0.20% | +6.71% | -4.22% | -32.18% | -29.41% |
| 2026-01-01 | 0.01 | $2970.03 | +1.14% | +5.41% | +6.65% | +12.85% | -8.99% | -29.45% |
| 2025-12-30 | 0.01 | $2934.36 | +1.15% | +2.37% | +9.99% | +5.36% | +2.64% | -32.46% |
| 2025-12-10 | 0.01 | $3318.72 | +0.14% | -6.99% | -10.87% | -10.65% | -6.41% | -39.95% |
| 2025-12-04 | 0.01 | $3188.88 | -1.71% | -4.77% | +4.21% | -11.18% | -1.69% | -37.82% |
| 2025-11-16 | 0.01 | $3169.70 | -2.45% | -1.52% | -12.67% | -5.68% | -6.49% | -35.38% |
| 2025-11-13 | 0.01 | $3412.54 | -5.55% | -7.12% | -11.48% | -11.31% | -9.55% | -40.76% |
| 2025-11-01 | 0.01 | $3846.96 | +0.68% | -6.41% | -10.93% | -18.93% | -22.26% | -26.63% |
| 2025-10-26 | 0.01 | $3954.00 | +5.17% | +0.63% | -2.05% | -14.02% | -25.33% | -25.26% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-19: +27.43%
- 2025-09-27: +12.04%
- 2025-12-30: +9.99%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-05: -16.52%
- 2026-06-02: -15.63%
- 2025-11-16: -12.67%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or above 0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.