Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
Ethereum has recorded 17 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.09% and 52.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -7.6% to -5.3% | 1 |
| -5.3% to -3.1% | 4 |
| -3.1% to -0.8% | 5 |
| -0.8% to +1.4% | 3 |
| +1.4% to +3.7% | 1 |
| +3.7% to +5.9% | 2 |
| +5.9% to +8.2% | 1 |
| +8.2% to +10.5% | 0 |
| +10.5% to +12.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 18 | -1.33% | -0.17% | 27.8% | 12.72% | -7.60% |
| 3 days | 18 | 1.32% | 1.23% | 55.6% | 14.73% | -9.15% |
| 7 days | 17 | 0.09% | -0.63% | 52.9% | 12.51% | -19.50% |
| 14 days | 17 | 2.45% | -0.38% | 64.7% | 10.87% | -25.61% |
| 30 days | 17 | -1.35% | -2.17% | 47.1% | 15.28% | -34.16% |
| 90 days | 17 | -15.23% | -3.05% | 35.3% | 56.57% | -26.35% |
Historical occurrences
18 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | -0.01 | $2467.53 | -1.22% | +2.34% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-07 | -0.01 | $1568.70 | +7.60% | +4.47% | +7.11% | +10.87% | +14.65% | +56.57% |
| 2026-05-07 | -0.01 | $2351.01 | -2.54% | -1.01% | -3.94% | -9.51% | -32.69% | -20.52% |
| 2026-04-28 | -0.02 | $2303.88 | -0.48% | -2.04% | +1.84% | +1.51% | -12.21% | -15.23% |
| 2026-04-24 | -0.01 | $2331.10 | -0.66% | +1.63% | -3.18% | -1.71% | -9.21% | -17.06% |
| 2026-04-18 | -0.02 | $2421.29 | -2.88% | -4.40% | -4.36% | -5.19% | -12.00% | -23.06% |
| 2026-04-02 | -0.01 | $2131.54 | -3.72% | -3.73% | +2.26% | +10.75% | +7.70% | -26.35% |
| 2026-03-27 | -0.02 | $2059.59 | -3.30% | -3.78% | -0.35% | +5.75% | +12.67% | -21.31% |
| 2026-03-09 | -0.02 | $1939.39 | +2.76% | +5.80% | +12.51% | +6.00% | +15.28% | -19.11% |
| 2026-02-27 | -0.01 | $2027.51 | -4.75% | -4.33% | +2.26% | +2.19% | -1.35% | -0.25% |
| 2026-02-23 | -0.04 | $1886.45 | -1.44% | +8.83% | +2.83% | +2.81% | +14.31% | +12.19% |
| 2026-02-19 | -0.01 | $1954.65 | -0.26% | +1.65% | +5.04% | +8.85% | +9.82% | +7.91% |
| 2026-02-13 | -0.01 | $1947.84 | +5.16% | +1.01% | +0.09% | +4.09% | +8.18% | +15.95% |
| 2026-02-10 | -0.02 | $2106.79 | -4.05% | -7.54% | -5.16% | -11.75% | -2.60% | +12.49% |
| 2026-02-06 | -0.03 | $1823.81 | +12.72% | +14.73% | +6.80% | +6.90% | +8.81% | +28.91% |
| 2026-02-01 | -0.02 | $2450.66 | -7.60% | -9.15% | -14.80% | -14.89% | -17.21% | -6.33% |
| 2026-01-26 | -0.01 | $2812.94 | +4.01% | +7.07% | -19.50% | -25.61% | -34.16% | -17.50% |
| 2025-10-11 | -0.01 | $3841.67 | -2.45% | +10.51% | -0.17% | +2.45% | -6.84% | -19.15% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-03-09: +12.51%
- 2026-06-07: +7.11%
- 2026-02-06: +6.80%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-26: -19.50%
- 2026-02-01: -14.80%
- 2026-02-10: -5.16%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.