Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After a 5% One-Day Drop?
Ethereum has recorded 18 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.26% and 44.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -19.8% to -15.9% | 1 |
| -15.9% to -12.1% | 2 |
| -12.1% to -8.3% | 1 |
| -8.3% to -4.4% | 3 |
| -4.4% to -0.6% | 4 |
| -0.6% to +3.2% | 1 |
| +3.2% to +7.1% | 2 |
| +7.1% to +10.9% | 2 |
| +10.9% to +14.7% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 18 | -1.93% | -0.70% | 33.3% | 12.72% | -8.75% |
| 3 days | 18 | -2.48% | -1.61% | 38.9% | 14.73% | -19.78% |
| 7 days | 18 | -0.26% | -2.08% | 44.4% | 15.10% | -35.39% |
| 14 days | 18 | 0.52% | -2.65% | 50.0% | 12.12% | -30.99% |
| 30 days | 18 | -0.93% | -3.19% | 50.0% | 17.96% | -33.73% |
| 90 days | 18 | -20.74% | -10.15% | 27.8% | 58.47% | -39.67% |
Historical occurrences
18 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | -10.55 | $1582.46 | -0.87% | +6.83% | +5.25% | +7.99% | +12.75% | +58.47% |
| 2026-06-03 | -7.25 | $1858.36 | -2.51% | -14.85% | -11.82% | -3.60% | -8.60% | +32.73% |
| 2026-03-27 | -5.19 | $2059.59 | -3.30% | -3.78% | -0.35% | +5.75% | +12.67% | -21.31% |
| 2026-03-19 | -5.08 | $2203.13 | -2.89% | -6.22% | -1.39% | -3.25% | +9.90% | -18.69% |
| 2026-02-23 | -5.06 | $1886.45 | -1.44% | +8.83% | +2.83% | +2.81% | +14.31% | +12.19% |
| 2026-02-16 | -5.67 | $1967.55 | +1.56% | -0.66% | -4.12% | -1.41% | +17.96% | +10.80% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.91 | $1823.81 | +12.72% | +14.73% | +6.80% | +6.90% | +8.81% | +28.91% |
| 2026-02-01 | -9.33 | $2450.66 | -7.60% | -9.15% | -14.80% | -14.89% | -17.21% | -6.33% |
| 2026-01-30 | -6.28 | $2822.63 | -4.24% | -19.78% | -35.39% | -30.99% | -30.32% | -20.16% |
| 2026-01-21 | -7.68 | $2941.88 | +1.44% | +0.45% | +2.66% | -24.32% | -33.73% | -21.32% |
| 2025-12-02 | -6.49 | $2796.73 | +7.18% | +12.07% | +11.69% | +5.98% | +6.20% | -30.64% |
| 2025-11-21 | -6.24 | $2832.53 | -2.42% | -1.19% | +6.44% | +10.66% | +5.11% | -30.99% |
| 2025-11-14 | -5.55 | $3223.18 | -3.24% | -4.07% | -12.12% | -6.46% | -3.35% | -39.67% |
| 2025-11-04 | -7.81 | $3600.36 | -8.75% | -8.00% | -0.95% | -15.95% | -11.43% | -37.11% |
| 2025-10-11 | -12.06 | $3841.67 | -2.45% | +10.51% | -0.17% | +2.45% | -6.84% | -19.15% |
| 2025-10-08 | -5.05 | $4453.78 | +1.62% | -13.74% | -7.35% | -13.19% | -25.63% | -27.54% |
| 2025-09-26 | -6.18 | $3896.06 | +3.41% | +6.25% | +15.10% | +12.12% | +1.49% | -24.40% |
| 2025-09-23 | -5.49 | $4201.89 | -0.88% | -7.28% | +0.30% | +11.64% | -9.42% | -28.50% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +15.10%
- 2025-12-02: +11.69%
- 2026-02-06: +6.80%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -35.39%
- 2026-02-01: -14.80%
- 2025-11-14: -12.12%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.