Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After a 3% One-Day Rise?
Ethereum has recorded 39 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.80% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -28.0% to -23.2% | 1 |
| -23.2% to -18.3% | 2 |
| -18.3% to -13.5% | 4 |
| -13.5% to -8.7% | 5 |
| -8.7% to -3.8% | 7 |
| -3.8% to +1.0% | 8 |
| +1.0% to +5.8% | 7 |
| +5.8% to +10.7% | 2 |
| +10.7% to +15.5% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 40 | -0.07% | 0.04% | 47.5% | 7.40% | -5.05% |
| 3 days | 40 | -1.10% | -1.52% | 42.5% | 7.62% | -22.17% |
| 7 days | 39 | -2.80% | -1.90% | 33.3% | 12.04% | -19.90% |
| 14 days | 38 | -3.46% | -4.05% | 36.8% | 15.51% | -27.99% |
| 30 days | 37 | -3.89% | -4.77% | 40.5% | 25.05% | -41.52% |
| 90 days | 34 | -24.81% | -17.64% | 17.6% | 47.59% | -46.77% |
Historical occurrences
40 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | 3.17 | $2514.85 | +0.41% | -0.00% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 4.89 | $2507.65 | -2.06% | +0.25% | -2.80% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 17.50 | $2251.73 | +3.32% | +7.62% | +11.31% | +6.18% | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 4.18 | $1952.90 | -3.20% | -2.26% | -3.58% | -2.25% | +25.05% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 6.55 | $1890.31 | +1.40% | -2.62% | +2.03% | +1.60% | -0.31% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 5.62 | $1698.56 | +3.44% | +5.05% | +2.72% | +9.68% | +8.53% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 4.03 | $1794.96 | -0.20% | -4.73% | -3.89% | -10.32% | +6.79% | +37.98% |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.14 | $1671.87 | -0.38% | +3.20% | +2.29% | -6.33% | +6.94% | +47.59% |
| 2026-06-08 | 7.60 | $1687.88 | +0.15% | -3.97% | +2.23% | +1.01% | +4.94% | +46.93% |
| 2026-04-18 | 3.08 | $2421.29 | -2.88% | -4.40% | -4.36% | -5.19% | -12.00% | -23.06% |
| 2026-04-14 | 8.44 | $2374.02 | -2.00% | -1.05% | -2.50% | -2.95% | -4.87% | -23.95% |
| 2026-04-11 | 3.19 | $2247.42 | +1.59% | +5.63% | +7.74% | +3.04% | +5.45% | -22.37% |
| 2026-04-08 | 6.43 | $2235.82 | -2.51% | +0.52% | +4.05% | +4.06% | +2.48% | -19.56% |
| 2026-04-01 | 3.53 | $2095.42 | +1.72% | -4.10% | +6.70% | +11.03% | +7.71% | -23.18% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.71 | $2152.47 | +0.18% | -4.32% | -5.97% | -2.40% | +10.37% | -20.79% |
| 2026-03-16 | 3.56 | $2182.07 | +7.40% | +0.97% | -5.79% | -9.18% | +6.62% | -22.99% |
| 2026-03-05 | 7.29 | $2127.58 | -2.55% | -6.73% | -3.56% | +3.55% | -5.55% | -12.65% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.59 | $2028.80 | -2.26% | +2.20% | -1.77% | +15.51% | +5.06% | -1.17% |
| 2026-02-26 | 10.85 | $2053.10 | -1.25% | -4.21% | +3.63% | -0.06% | -3.00% | +0.94% |
| 2026-02-14 | 5.16 | $2048.32 | +1.83% | -2.45% | -3.92% | -5.72% | +6.53% | +11.44% |
| 2026-02-07 | 12.72 | $2055.77 | +1.57% | +2.48% | -0.36% | -4.27% | -5.66% | +11.46% |
| 2026-02-03 | 3.49 | $2343.46 | -4.99% | -22.17% | -10.10% | -14.73% | -9.21% | -0.89% |
| 2026-01-27 | 4.01 | $2925.76 | +3.22% | -3.52% | -19.90% | -27.99% | -29.83% | -19.02% |
| 2026-01-14 | 7.72 | $3330.50 | +0.64% | -1.14% | -11.67% | -9.32% | -41.52% | -28.72% |
| 2026-01-03 | 4.37 | $3135.11 | -0.14% | +2.94% | -1.59% | +5.02% | -27.77% | -34.54% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-27: +12.04%
- 2026-08-20: +11.31%
- 2025-12-03: +10.71%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-27: -19.90%
- 2025-11-10: -13.61%
- 2026-01-14: -11.67%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.