Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Rise
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Ethereum
40 historical signal(s) detected for Ethereum; 29 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (11 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | 2025-09-20 | $4707.4671 | $4470.1027 | -5.04% | 94.96 |
| 2025-09-27 | 2025-10-04 | $4028.9085 | $4514.1486 | +12.04% | 106.39 |
| 2025-10-07 | 2025-10-14 | $4690.8379 | $4245.4471 | -9.49% | 96.29 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-11-03 | $4158.5676 | $3905.3429 | -6.09% | 90.43 |
| 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-13 | $3425.9698 | $3412.5432 | -0.39% | 90.07 |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-26 | $3121.5138 | $2958.5732 | -5.22% | 85.37 |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-12-10 | $2997.6024 | $3318.7209 | +10.71% | 94.52 |
| 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-17 | $3318.7209 | $2957.8602 | -10.87% | 84.24 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $2977.6645 | $2926.4702 | -1.72% | 82.79 |
| 2026-01-03 | 2026-01-10 | $3135.1085 | $3085.4103 | -1.59% | 81.48 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $3330.5044 | $2941.8833 | -11.67% | 71.97 |
| 2026-01-27 | 2026-02-03 | $2925.7638 | $2343.4585 | -19.90% | 57.65 |
| 2026-02-03 | 2026-02-10 | $2343.4585 | $2106.7856 | -10.10% | 51.83 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $2048.3188 | $1967.9284 | -3.92% | 49.79 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $2053.0977 | $2127.5792 | +3.63% | 51.60 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $2127.5792 | $2051.9341 | -3.56% | 49.76 |
| 2026-03-16 | 2026-03-23 | $2182.0727 | $2055.6818 | -5.79% | 46.88 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $2152.4713 | $2024.0146 | -5.97% | 44.08 |
| 2026-04-01 | 2026-04-08 | $2095.4160 | $2235.8222 | +6.70% | 47.04 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $2235.8222 | $2326.4452 | +4.05% | 48.94 |
| 2026-04-18 | 2026-04-25 | $2421.2906 | $2315.7002 | -4.36% | 46.81 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $1687.8827 | $1725.4489 | +2.23% | 47.85 |
| 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-23 | $1794.9577 | $1725.1620 | -3.89% | 45.99 |
| 2026-07-03 | 2026-07-10 | $1698.5611 | $1744.6954 | +2.72% | 47.24 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $1890.3094 | $1928.6559 | +2.03% | 48.20 |
| 2026-07-27 | 2026-08-03 | $1952.9020 | $1882.9306 | -3.58% | 46.47 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $2251.7346 | $2506.3431 | +11.31% | 51.73 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $2507.6483 | $2437.5148 | -2.80% | 50.28 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Ethereum · Read the full methodology