Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After a 3% One-Day Drop?
Ethereum has recorded 40 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.65% and 47.5% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -19.8% to -16.2% | 1 |
| -16.2% to -12.7% | 2 |
| -12.7% to -9.2% | 0 |
| -9.2% to -5.6% | 6 |
| -5.6% to -2.1% | 9 |
| -2.1% to +1.5% | 8 |
| +1.5% to +5.0% | 5 |
| +5.0% to +8.5% | 7 |
| +8.5% to +12.1% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 40 | -0.36% | -0.59% | 42.5% | 8.44% | -12.06% |
| 3 days | 40 | 0.36% | -1.03% | 52.5% | 12.07% | -19.78% |
| 7 days | 40 | -0.65% | -1.79% | 47.5% | 15.10% | -35.39% |
| 14 days | 40 | -1.20% | -2.94% | 42.5% | 14.45% | -30.99% |
| 30 days | 39 | 1.49% | -2.20% | 53.8% | 32.58% | -35.10% |
| 90 days | 36 | -20.74% | -13.47% | 25.0% | 58.47% | -39.67% |
Historical occurrences
41 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -4.66 | $2397.50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | -3.64 | $2423.41 | +1.61% | +0.77% | +1.39% | +2.34% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -3.20 | $1890.45 | +1.59% | +1.43% | -1.69% | -1.01% | +32.58% | — |
| 2026-06-26 | -3.37 | $1566.01 | +0.70% | +0.26% | +8.46% | +11.41% | +19.70% | — |
| 2026-06-24 | -3.45 | $1665.72 | -2.71% | -5.33% | -5.76% | +6.33% | +12.71% | — |
| 2026-06-10 | -3.06 | $1638.75 | -1.09% | +1.64% | +9.31% | +1.65% | +6.46% | +51.91% |
| 2026-06-06 | -10.55 | $1582.46 | -0.87% | +6.83% | +5.25% | +7.99% | +12.75% | +58.47% |
| 2026-06-03 | -7.25 | $1858.36 | -2.51% | -14.85% | -11.82% | -3.60% | -8.60% | +32.73% |
| 2026-05-23 | -3.19 | $2064.04 | +2.54% | +2.26% | -2.49% | -23.33% | -17.40% | +12.72% |
| 2026-04-20 | -3.71 | $2264.19 | +2.23% | +4.93% | +4.64% | +2.58% | -6.84% | -17.75% |
| 2026-04-13 | -4.11 | $2189.22 | +8.44% | +7.83% | +3.42% | +8.22% | +3.95% | -18.33% |
| 2026-04-03 | -3.72 | $2052.34 | -2.09% | +0.68% | +6.12% | +14.45% | +13.15% | -21.64% |
| 2026-03-27 | -5.19 | $2059.59 | -3.30% | -3.78% | -0.35% | +5.75% | +12.67% | -21.31% |
| 2026-03-22 | -3.75 | $2066.16 | -0.51% | +4.37% | -3.20% | -0.68% | +12.03% | -17.29% |
| 2026-03-19 | -5.08 | $2203.13 | -2.89% | -6.22% | -1.39% | -3.25% | +9.90% | -18.69% |
| 2026-03-07 | -4.55 | $1979.08 | +0.27% | +0.70% | +5.61% | +8.46% | +4.40% | -10.61% |
| 2026-02-28 | -4.75 | $1931.12 | +1.84% | +5.06% | +2.48% | +8.23% | +2.62% | +3.99% |
| 2026-02-23 | -5.06 | $1886.45 | -1.44% | +8.83% | +2.83% | +2.81% | +14.31% | +12.19% |
| 2026-02-16 | -5.67 | $1967.55 | +1.56% | -0.66% | -4.12% | -1.41% | +17.96% | +10.80% |
| 2026-02-11 | -4.05 | $2021.44 | -3.80% | +1.33% | -1.34% | -8.38% | +2.50% | +15.69% |
| 2026-02-04 | -4.99 | $2226.41 | -3.73% | -7.66% | -9.21% | -10.42% | -6.87% | +5.38% |
| 2026-01-30 | -6.28 | $2822.63 | -4.24% | -19.78% | -35.39% | -30.99% | -30.32% | -20.16% |
| 2026-01-26 | -4.67 | $2812.94 | +4.01% | +7.07% | -19.50% | -25.61% | -34.16% | -17.50% |
| 2026-01-21 | -7.68 | $2941.88 | +1.44% | +0.45% | +2.66% | -24.32% | -33.73% | -21.32% |
| 2026-01-08 | -3.78 | $3167.41 | -1.94% | -2.57% | +5.82% | -5.79% | -35.10% | -29.41% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +15.10%
- 2025-12-02: +11.69%
- 2026-06-10: +9.31%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -35.39%
- 2026-01-26: -19.50%
- 2025-10-29: -17.43%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.