Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Ethereum
41 historical signal(s) detected for Ethereum; 26 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (15 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $4201.8900 | $4214.4983 | +0.30% | 100.30 |
| 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-15 | $4453.7813 | $4126.2354 | -7.35% | 92.92 |
| 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-23 | $3991.5442 | $3805.8819 | -4.65% | 88.60 |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-05 | $3978.8120 | $3285.2318 | -17.43% | 73.16 |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-11-14 | $3312.4503 | $3223.1758 | -2.70% | 71.18 |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-21 | $3223.1758 | $2832.5308 | -12.12% | 62.56 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $2796.7339 | $3123.8053 | +11.69% | 69.87 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $3086.7328 | $2977.6645 | -3.53% | 67.40 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2026-01-15 | $3167.4128 | $3351.8161 | +5.82% | 71.33 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $2941.8833 | $3020.0157 | +2.66% | 73.22 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $2822.6338 | $1823.8053 | -35.39% | 47.31 |
| 2026-02-11 | 2026-02-18 | $2021.4416 | $1994.3527 | -1.34% | 46.68 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $1886.4504 | $1939.7957 | +2.83% | 48.00 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $1979.0781 | $2090.0730 | +5.61% | 50.69 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $2203.1349 | $2172.4163 | -1.39% | 49.98 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $2059.5891 | $2052.3362 | -0.35% | 49.81 |
| 2026-04-03 | 2026-04-10 | $2052.3362 | $2177.9726 | +6.12% | 52.86 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $2189.2214 | $2264.1942 | +3.42% | 54.67 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-27 | $2264.1942 | $2369.1540 | +4.64% | 57.20 |
| 2026-05-23 | 2026-05-30 | $2064.0397 | $2012.5608 | -2.49% | 55.77 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $1858.3640 | $1638.7504 | -11.82% | 49.18 |
| 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-17 | $1638.7504 | $1791.3887 | +9.31% | 53.76 |
| 2026-06-24 | 2026-07-01 | $1665.7162 | $1569.8272 | -5.76% | 50.67 |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-04 | $1890.4523 | $1858.5377 | -1.69% | 49.81 |
| 2026-08-23 | 2026-08-30 | $2423.4127 | $2457.0893 | +1.39% | 50.51 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Ethereum · Read the full methodology