Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After 3 Consecutive Negative Funding Intervals?
Ethereum has recorded 32 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.20% and 56.2% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -28.2% to -21.9% | 3 |
| -21.9% to -15.5% | 0 |
| -15.5% to -9.1% | 5 |
| -9.1% to -2.8% | 3 |
| -2.8% to +3.6% | 4 |
| +3.6% to +10.0% | 8 |
| +10.0% to +16.3% | 6 |
| +16.3% to +22.7% | 2 |
| +22.7% to +29.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 32 | 0.26% | 1.11% | 56.2% | 12.72% | -9.33% |
| 3 days | 32 | 1.02% | 1.33% | 56.2% | 14.73% | -13.30% |
| 7 days | 32 | 2.20% | 0.06% | 56.2% | 8.46% | -23.94% |
| 14 days | 32 | 2.06% | 1.18% | 62.5% | 17.05% | -24.22% |
| 30 days | 32 | 4.18% | 1.90% | 62.5% | 29.08% | -28.23% |
| 90 days | 30 | -16.78% | -7.77% | 36.7% | 58.47% | -36.76% |
Historical occurrences
33 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -0.00 | $2397.50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | -0.00 | $1877.46 | -0.91% | +4.02% | +2.14% | +1.32% | +29.08% | — |
| 2026-06-26 | -0.00 | $1566.01 | +0.70% | +0.26% | +8.46% | +11.41% | +19.70% | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -0.01 | $1582.46 | -0.87% | +6.83% | +5.25% | +7.99% | +12.75% | +58.47% |
| 2026-05-05 | -0.00 | $2346.17 | +0.62% | -2.34% | -0.32% | -9.26% | -22.78% | -19.74% |
| 2026-04-30 | -0.01 | $2253.62 | +0.15% | +3.05% | +4.32% | +0.22% | -10.70% | -14.78% |
| 2026-04-24 | -0.00 | $2331.10 | -0.66% | +1.63% | -3.18% | -1.71% | -9.21% | -17.06% |
| 2026-04-18 | -0.02 | $2421.29 | -2.88% | -4.40% | -4.36% | -5.19% | -12.00% | -23.06% |
| 2026-04-16 | -0.00 | $2360.58 | -0.49% | -0.39% | +0.64% | -4.53% | -5.79% | -19.92% |
| 2026-04-13 | -0.00 | $2189.22 | +8.44% | +7.83% | +3.42% | +8.22% | +3.95% | -18.33% |
| 2026-04-11 | -0.01 | $2247.42 | +1.59% | +5.63% | +7.74% | +3.04% | +5.45% | -22.37% |
| 2026-04-02 | -0.01 | $2131.54 | -3.72% | -3.73% | +2.26% | +10.75% | +7.70% | -26.35% |
| 2026-03-27 | -0.01 | $2059.59 | -3.30% | -3.78% | -0.35% | +5.75% | +12.67% | -21.31% |
| 2026-03-23 | -0.00 | $2055.68 | +4.71% | +5.68% | -3.60% | +0.51% | +13.18% | -15.39% |
| 2026-03-19 | -0.00 | $2203.13 | -2.89% | -6.22% | -1.39% | -3.25% | +9.90% | -18.69% |
| 2026-03-15 | -0.00 | $2107.11 | +3.56% | +10.15% | -1.94% | -5.08% | +12.67% | -20.96% |
| 2026-03-07 | -0.00 | $1979.08 | +0.27% | +0.70% | +5.61% | +8.46% | +4.40% | -10.61% |
| 2026-03-04 | -0.00 | $1982.95 | +7.29% | -0.20% | +2.63% | +17.05% | +3.50% | +1.04% |
| 2026-02-28 | -0.01 | $1931.12 | +1.84% | +5.06% | +2.48% | +8.23% | +2.62% | +3.99% |
| 2026-02-25 | -0.00 | $1852.08 | +10.85% | +4.27% | +7.07% | +9.89% | +11.20% | +13.96% |
| 2026-02-23 | -0.04 | $1886.45 | -1.44% | +8.83% | +2.83% | +2.81% | +14.31% | +12.19% |
| 2026-02-19 | -0.01 | $1954.65 | -0.26% | +1.65% | +5.04% | +8.85% | +9.82% | +7.91% |
| 2026-02-16 | -0.01 | $1967.55 | +1.56% | -0.66% | -4.12% | -1.41% | +17.96% | +10.80% |
| 2026-02-11 | -0.01 | $2021.44 | -3.80% | +1.33% | -1.34% | -8.38% | +2.50% | +15.69% |
| 2026-02-09 | -0.00 | $2092.43 | +0.69% | -7.06% | -5.97% | -9.84% | -2.74% | +11.22% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-26: +8.46%
- 2026-04-11: +7.74%
- 2026-02-25: +7.07%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-31: -23.94%
- 2025-10-30: -12.22%
- 2025-09-20: -9.87%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded at the 3rd consecutive negative funding interval. A longer uninterrupted run remains one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.